184 



FUR-SEAL HERD OF ALASKA. 



Evermann and his associates 

 a-ttempt a "correction" of El- 

 liott's table. 



Dr. Evermann. I would state that this 

 has been brought in by Mr. Elliott to show 

 some point which he wished to make, and 

 I wish to show how very cautious any com- 

 mittee must be in accepting facts, alleged 

 facts, or figures submitted to it by Mr. 

 Elliott. WTiere he got 800,000 cows in 

 1927, that method of computation will 

 give only 303,371. 



Department of Commerce 



AND Labor, Bureau of Fisheries, 



Washington. January 18, 1912. 

 Hon. W. S. Goodwin, 

 ■*'■'' House of Representatives, 



Washington, D. C. 



Sir: Referring to the table submitted 

 by Henry W. Elliott to the Committee on 

 Foreign Affairs at the hearing on January 

 4, 1912, and printed on page 99 of the hear- 

 ings, showing the prospective increase in 

 the seal herd of the Pribilof Islands. I have 

 the honor to advise that a critical exami- 

 nation of this table shows such serious er- 

 rors in computation and such glaring dis- 

 crepancies as to render the table unreli- 

 able and w^holly misleading. The bureau 

 transmits herewith a copy of Elliott's fig- 

 ures for breeding cows, nubiles, and fe- 

 male pups, with the correct computations 

 iii parallel columns, so that the nature of 

 the discrepancies can be s?<^n at a glance. 

 The corrected figures have been arrived at 

 throughout by using Elliott's own basis of 

 computation. Some of the errors are so 

 palpable as to be readily apparent to the 

 committee. The prospective number of 

 breeding cows in the herd in 1927 is sho\\^^ 

 to ba 303.371, whereas Elliott claims that 

 there will then exist 800,000 breeding 

 cows. 



If the committee consider it worth while 

 to have a hearing on this matter, the bu- 

 reau will be pleased to show in detail the 

 numerous inaccuracies in Elliott's table. 



By direction of the commissioner. 

 Very respectfully, 



H. M. Smith, 

 Aeting Commissioner. 



But Elliott again exposes the 

 nonsense of that "correct" table 

 of Evermann's. 



Washington, D. C, 



January 18, 1912 — 6 p. m. 

 Hon. Wm. Sulzer, 



Chairman Committee on Foreign Affairs. 



Dear Sir: I have befoie me a letter ad- 

 dressed to a member of your committee 

 from Acting Fish Commissioner H. M. 

 Smith, dated January 18, 1912. He in- 

 forms Mr. Sharp that he has been in labor 

 during the last two weeks over my table of 

 increase to the small nucleus of our fur- 

 seal herd, which I gave to your committee 

 in his presence January 4 last. He says 

 that he now finds this table of mine full of 

 "serious errors," "glaring," etc., and in- 

 closes "a scientific" "correction" of It — 

 "Montes parieunter, ridiculus mus." 



Mr. Smith and his "scientific" asso- 

 ciates belong to that class of men who can 

 see a fly on a barn door, but who can not 

 see the door. Let me, therefore, present 

 that problem of increase for that herd to 

 you in another form, as I would have done 

 January 4 last had Mr. Smith then at- 

 tempted the least denial of my table given 

 you then. It can be done very briefly 

 and clearly, to wit: 



We start in July, this year, with 50,000 

 breeding "cow" seals; during this July 

 coming they will add 25,000 pup "cow- 

 seals " to their breeding strength, or 50 per 

 cent increase of it. But, we subtract 

 from that 50 per cent of increase a loss of 30 

 per cent due to natural causes during the 

 interval of its birth in 1912 and its reap- 

 pearance on the islands in 1913, as "year- 

 ling" cow seals. Then, the loss of this 

 "yearling " cow-seal life during the season 

 of 1913, and its reappearance as a breeding 

 or "nubile" life, is not to exceed 2 per 

 cent, and that adds 18 per cent net in- 

 crease of breeding strength by the opening 

 of the season of 1914. This net annual 

 increase of IS per cent over all natural loss 

 will hold good for the next 15 years, be- 

 cause this is a newborn increase from 

 1912 — all young cows, the oldest of them 

 in 1927 not over L5 vears. 



WTiat is the sum of $50,000 at 18 per cent 

 annual interest compounded for 15 years? 

 Therefore, you observe, I have not misled 

 you. 



I am, very respectfully, your obe- 

 dient servant, 



Henry H. Elliott. 



