662 ANNUAL BBPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1913. 



when they rapidly become " necessaries of life." Of these the most 

 familiar examples are tea, coffee, cocoa^ and bananas, india rubber 

 and manufactured cotton goods. There is here, of course, always the 

 possibility that wheat as a staple might be replaced by a foodstuff 

 produced in the tropics, and it would be extremely interesting to study 

 the geographical consequences of such an event as one-half of the sur- 

 face of the earth suddenly coming to help in feeding the two quarters 

 on either side ; but for many reasons, which I need not go into here, 

 such a consummation is exceedingly unlikely. AVliat seems more 

 probable is that the trade between different latitudes will continue to 

 be characterized specially by its variety, the variety doubtless increas- 

 ing, and the quantity increasing in still larger measure. The chief 

 modification in the future may perhaps be looked for in the occasional 

 transference of manufactures of raw materials produced in the tropics 

 to places within the tropics, especially when the manufactured article 

 is itself largely consumed near regions of production. The neces- 

 sary condition here is a region, such as, e. g., the monsoon region, in 

 which there is sufficient variation in the seasons to make the native 

 population laborious; for then, and apparently only then^ is it pos- 

 sible to secure sufficient industry and skill by training, and therefore 

 to be able to yield to the ever-growing pressure in more temperate 

 latitudes due to increased cost of labor. The best examples of this 

 to-day are probably the familiar ones of cotton and jute manufac- 

 ture in India. With certain limitations, manufacturing trade of this 

 kind is, however, likely to continue between temperate and strictly 

 tropical regions, where the climate is so uniform throughout the year 

 that the native has no incentive to work. There the collection of the 

 raw material is as much as, or even more than can be looked for — as 

 in the case of mahogany or wild rubber. Where raw material has to 

 be cultivated — as cotton, cultivated rubber, etc. — the raw material 

 has to be produced in regions more of the monsoon type, but it will 

 probably — perhaps as much for economic as geographical reasons — 

 be manufactured at some center in the temperate zones, and the 

 finished product transported thence, when necessary, to the point of 

 consumption in the tropics. 



We are here, however, specially liable to gi'ave disturbances of dis- 

 tribution arising from invention of new machinery or new chemical 

 methods; one need only mention the production of sugar or indigo. 

 Another aspect of this which is not without importance may perhaps 

 be referred to here, although it means the transference of certain in- 

 dustries to more accessible regions merely, rather than a definite 

 change of such an element as latitude. I have in mind the sudden con- 

 version of an industry in which much labor is expended on a small 

 amount of raw material into one where much raw material is con- 

 sumed, and by the application of power-driven machinery the labor 



