266 ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1926 
occurred the great Valparaiso (Chile) earthquake of August 17, and 
upon the same day the great Aleutian (Alaska) earthquake.’ 
Utilizing the Omori suggestion, the writer in 1909 predicted that 
“the zones in which the probability of heavy shocks is now most 
imminent, are the Japan-Kamchatka segment, the Peru-Bolivia seg- 
ment, and the archipelago region to the southeast of Asia.”** (See 
fig. 3.) 
The mountain range does not, so far as our knowledge goes, appear 
to be forming throughout the circuit of the great circle hemming 
in the Pacific, but terminates in West Antarctica and in New Zea- 
land. It is in the New Zealand region, particularly, that future 
shocks may be looked for. Tokyo was largely destroyed by earth- 
quake in 1855 and again in 1923. A heavy earthquake visited the 
vicinity of Wellington, New Zealand, in 1855, producing a fault 
scarp which may still be followed at the surface, and it is reasonable 
to suppose that a recurrence of movement in this neighborhood will 
take place in the not distant future. 
After the meetings of the Second Pan-Pacific Science Congress 
held in Australia in 1928 and just before his lamented death, Pro- 
fessor Omori traveled in the writer’s company from Sydney to 
Honolulu. Referring to the great Tokyo earthquake which had 
occurred less than a fortnight before, Professor Omori told the 
writer that he had fully expected this earthquake to take place within 
the Tokyo region, though not for another 50 years. ‘This statement 
of his illustrates well the possibilities of a fair prediction of earth- 
quakes as to their general locality, at the same time that it exposes 
our limitations with respect to the time of arrival of these devasta- 
ting visitations. 
ELASTIC REBOUND THEORY OF REID, 1910 
Theory stated—When in 1906 America was first awakened to 
the understanding that an earthquake peril exists upon its Pacific 
Coast, it had few scientists who possessed a background of earth- 
quake lore, as had, for example, the Mediterranean countries of 
Europe and Japan. It is unfortunate, therefore, that those who 
came to be charged with the investigation of this earthquake did 
not endeavor to study the literature of the subject before writing the 
report and supplying a theory of cause.’ Reid’s theory of Aipeete 
16. Omori, ‘ Preliminary note on the cause of the San Francisco earthquake of April 
18, 1906,” Bull. Imp. Earthq. Invest. Comm., vol. 1, No. 1, Jan., 1907, pp. 21-25. For 
later expression of this view see ‘“‘ Earthquake zones in and around the Pacific,” ibid., vol. 
11, No. 1, 1928, pp. 28—32. 
16 The evolution and the outlook of seismic geology,’ Proc. Am. Phil. Soc., vol. 48, 
July 6, 1909, p. 32. 
17 See Bull. Geol. Soc. Am., vol. 32, 1921, p. 45. 
