1823.] of the Expedition tinder Capt. Parry. 167 



known greater mildness of the temperature on the American 

 than on the Asiatic coast ; yet it is difficult to pronounce how 

 far this calculation would be found to agree with actual expe- 

 rience. At all events, the accumulation of ice is likely to be 

 sufficient, even in the lower latitude, to cause much obstruction; 

 and to retard the progress so far, as to induce the necessity of 

 wintering for the second time in these arctic latitudes. And this 

 brings us to the second supposition, which we beg to hazard ; 

 namely, that they have proceeded beyond the Copper Mine, or 

 even beyond Mackenzie's River during this last summer (1822), 

 and have pushed forward ; but though the passage may event- 

 ually prove to be pervious, that they have been obstructed by 

 climate, season, and other impediments, before they could launch 

 upon the Pacific by Bearing's Straits ; and that they are 

 actually now passing the winter at some point short of that 

 desirable goal. In this case no reasonable fears can be enter- 

 tained for their safety. The wintering on Melville Island has 

 set this question at rest. If all have gone well with them, not a 

 doubt can arise as to their capability of sustaining another 

 winter in a lower latitude, fortified by two years' experience, and 

 doubtless amply provided. Though the risk to health will of 

 course be somewhat greater (as appears by the reiterated appre- 

 hensions of Capt. Parry), yet we may confidently hope, that with 

 the earliest return of summer, they will press forward, and pene- 

 trate into Behring's Straits, probably by next August or Septem- 

 ber (1823). In this case, it v/ill be the end of 1823, or the 

 beginning of 1824, before they, or any intelligence of them, can 

 arrive in this country. This supposition embraces all the pro- 

 babilities of the former one, with others, and the important 

 adjunct of time superadded. It is the one to which we most 

 incline, because it seems to meet many of the objections likely 

 to be urged, and it is effectual for the accomplishment of a 

 north-west passage, if such do exist in the direction they may 

 have taken ; while it is consistent with their perfect safety, 

 which more than all is important; even granting that a little 

 beyond the spot where they are now sojourning, they should find 

 themselves impenetrably opposed by ice or land, or to have 

 sought for the passage in a wrong direction, an occurrence, by 

 the way, not unlikely to happen, they may still get back in the 

 course of the ensuing summer; and by October or November, 

 we may hail their arrival. 



The next, or third supposition, is not so favourable, involving, 

 as it does, the likelihood of some danger, and the certainty of 

 some difficulty, if not hardship. It is this ; suppose, as we 

 have already done, that they last summer reached, and are now 

 wintering somewhere beyond Mackenzie's River, but considera- 

 bly short of Behring's Straits ; and suppose that after having 

 resumed their efforts next summer, and proceeded to some dist- 

 ance, they should not be so fortunate as to find a channel lower 



