﻿538 
  ANNUAL 
  REPORT 
  SMITHSONIAN 
  INSTITUTION, 
  1927 
  

  

  temal 
  causes 
  ") 
  of 
  all 
  sorts 
  in 
  the 
  United 
  States 
  have 
  fallen 
  only 
  18 
  

   per 
  cent. 
  

  

  Turning 
  to 
  diarrhea 
  and 
  enteritis, 
  the 
  census 
  shows 
  a 
  decrease 
  of 
  

   66 
  per 
  cent, 
  while, 
  as 
  Doctor 
  Dublin 
  points 
  out, 
  the 
  death 
  rates 
  in 
  23 
  

   American 
  cities 
  have 
  declined 
  by 
  79 
  per 
  cent 
  ; 
  both 
  of 
  these 
  are 
  more 
  

   than 
  the 
  60 
  per 
  cent 
  set 
  down. 
  In 
  fact, 
  as 
  Dublin 
  also 
  points 
  out, 
  the 
  

   whole 
  infant 
  mortality 
  rate 
  has 
  been 
  already 
  cut 
  60 
  per 
  cent 
  ; 
  only 
  47 
  

   per 
  cent 
  was 
  set 
  down. 
  The 
  death 
  rate 
  of 
  children 
  at 
  ages 
  1 
  to 
  4 
  years 
  

   has 
  already 
  declined 
  50 
  per 
  cent; 
  67 
  per 
  cent 
  was 
  set 
  down 
  (for 
  dis- 
  

   eases 
  of 
  children 
  having 
  a 
  median 
  death 
  age 
  from 
  2 
  to 
  8). 
  

  

  The 
  mortality 
  among 
  graduates 
  of 
  women's 
  colleges 
  where 
  medical 
  

   inspection, 
  supervision, 
  and 
  instruction 
  have 
  been 
  used 
  is 
  less 
  than 
  

   one-third 
  that 
  of 
  the 
  general 
  population 
  (3), 
  showing 
  that 
  the 
  or- 
  

   dinary 
  mortality 
  of 
  youth 
  is 
  two-thirds 
  preventable. 
  At 
  the 
  Uni- 
  

   versity 
  of 
  Wisconsin 
  (4), 
  as 
  the 
  result 
  of 
  medical 
  supervision 
  sup- 
  

   plied 
  by 
  the 
  State 
  to 
  students, 
  it 
  was 
  found 
  that 
  : 
  

  

  The 
  loss 
  of 
  time 
  due 
  to 
  bed 
  illness 
  has 
  been 
  reduced 
  40 
  to 
  60 
  per 
  cent, 
  due 
  

   to 
  the 
  early 
  treatment 
  of 
  preventable 
  conditions. 
  The 
  frequent 
  consultations 
  

   have 
  reduced 
  serious 
  illness 
  and 
  its 
  complications 
  by 
  at 
  least 
  50 
  per 
  cent. 
  

   During 
  the 
  eight 
  years 
  of 
  this 
  medical 
  supervision 
  the 
  university 
  death 
  rate 
  has 
  

   been 
  reduced 
  to 
  only 
  one-fourth 
  of 
  the 
  general 
  expectant 
  rate, 
  exclusive 
  of 
  

   tuberculosis. 
  

  

  FUTURE 
  POSSIBILITIES 
  

  

  All 
  these 
  facts 
  show 
  how 
  readily 
  illness 
  and 
  disease 
  will 
  yield 
  to 
  

   preventive 
  measures 
  and 
  that 
  the 
  forecasts 
  made 
  in 
  1909 
  were 
  more 
  

   than 
  justified. 
  

  

  In 
  1922 
  Dublin 
  published 
  an 
  independent 
  forecast 
  in 
  his 
  Possi- 
  

   bility 
  of 
  Extending 
  Human 
  Life 
  (5), 
  reviewing 
  the 
  more 
  recent 
  

   and 
  reliable 
  data, 
  and 
  showing 
  that 
  10 
  years 
  can 
  still 
  be 
  added 
  to 
  

   human 
  life 
  by 
  applying 
  existing 
  knowledge 
  alone, 
  without 
  taking 
  

   account 
  of 
  future 
  discoveries 
  or 
  improvements 
  in 
  habits 
  of 
  living. 
  

   Figure 
  II 
  shows 
  the 
  survivorship 
  curve 
  (for 
  United 
  States, 
  1920) 
  and 
  

   Dublin's 
  claim 
  of 
  what 
  is 
  possible. 
  

  

  The 
  reason 
  Dublin 
  left 
  out 
  the 
  effects 
  of 
  changes 
  in 
  habits 
  and 
  in 
  

   the 
  advance 
  of 
  hygienic 
  science 
  was 
  merely 
  because 
  for 
  these 
  two 
  

   factors 
  he 
  had 
  no 
  positive 
  data 
  and 
  not 
  because 
  he 
  thought 
  hygienic 
  

   science 
  would 
  henceforth 
  stand 
  still, 
  or 
  human 
  habits 
  either. 
  

  

  There 
  is 
  no 
  way 
  of 
  accurately 
  estimating 
  the 
  effect 
  of 
  these 
  two 
  

   factors 
  — 
  new 
  discoveries 
  and 
  changing 
  habits. 
  But 
  we 
  have 
  some- 
  

   thing 
  to 
  go 
  by 
  in 
  the 
  rates 
  at 
  which 
  life 
  has 
  been 
  lengthening 
  in 
  the 
  

   past. 
  Figure 
  III 
  shows 
  the 
  chief 
  results 
  of 
  studies 
  in 
  past 
  longevity. 
  

   As 
  I 
  pointed 
  out 
  in 
  1909 
  (1), 
  during 
  the 
  seventeenth 
  and 
  eighteenth 
  

   centuries 
  in 
  Europe 
  human 
  life 
  was 
  lengthening 
  at 
  the 
  rate 
  of 
  about 
  

   4 
  years 
  per 
  century. 
  During 
  the 
  first 
  three-quarters 
  of 
  the 
  nineteenth 
  

  

  