PACIFIC FISHERMAN 



59 



tory and not of appreciable magnitude. Commercial paper 

 in New York immediately after the declaration of war 

 was difficult of sale or discount at under 8 to sy 2 per cent, 

 and on this basis was not in demand. At present the dis- 

 count rate is from 3 to 3% per cent for approved com- 

 mercial bills, 60 to 90 days. Federal reserve banks' dis- 

 count rate is 4 per cent, 30 day paper, 4% per cent and up- 

 ward for 60 or 90 day paper. It is evident that bankers 

 generally are not availing themselves of this privilege. 



Reserve of the New York banks during August and 

 September was below the legal limit. On the 31st of Janu- 

 ary the reserve was $144,000,000 above the legal limit. The 

 fact that bankers have not availed themselves generally 

 of the privileges of re-discounting is evidence that money 

 is plentiful. The fact, however, that money is plentiful 

 is an indication of lack of demand and a light movement 

 of merchandise. 



Exports of wheat and all grain and flour is very heavy; 

 will probably continue during the present cereal year and 

 for the coming cereal season at record prices. Notwith- 

 standing, however, these favorable reports and, theoret- 

 ically, a demand for salmon, it is difficult to analyze the 

 situation sufficiently clear to state why salmon does not 

 move. Possibly the opening price of Alaska Red this sea- 

 son has had some bearing upon a smaller demand than 

 usual, and financial conditions on the east and west coasts 

 of South America have without doubt curtailed purchases 

 of the lower grades. 



One would infer from the results of the season of 1914 

 as to the higher grades, i. e., spring Columbia river 

 Chinook, Sockeyes, Bluebacks and Quiniaults, that con- 

 sumers who do not consider the retail price have not pur- 

 chased less than in former years, inasmuch as the output 

 on the Columbia river was above normal, but, on the 

 other hand, those who are compelled to consider carefully 

 the amount expended daily for food products, have, for 

 some reason, not consumed salmon to as great extent as 

 in average seasons. I refer particularly to the standard 

 grades: Alaska Red, Medium Red, Pink and Chum. 



Opening prices of Pinks and Chums did not permit of a 

 retail price of 10c per can, which unquestionably has, to 

 a great extent, lessened consumption, and inasmuch as 

 those who have studied carefully the economic side of 

 food products are of the firm opinion that the retail price 

 governs consumption to a greater etxent than packers 

 appreciate, i. e., a low price for particularly the two 

 lower grades, which permits a retail price and satisfac- 

 tory profit to the jobber and retailer at 10c per can, is 

 apparently the one point that must in future years be 

 carefully considered under heavy output. 



'Innumerable negotiations for export have passed by 

 cablegram during the past three months, but I am under 

 the impression that the actual sales to Great Britain par- 

 ticularly have not been appreciably above normal. 



That eventually sales of magnitude will be consummated 

 I am confident, but a buyer on the other side who is thor- 

 oughly conversant with the freight situation, war risk 

 and the present rate of exchange, is somewhat loath to 

 purchase, and it is probable purchases will not be con- 

 summated to any extent until stocks are absolutely de- 

 pleted. 



Shipments of pickled salmon to New York for consump- 

 tion in that market, and in transit for Germany via Rotter- 

 dam and Copenhagen, have, under the circumstances, been 

 exceedingly satisfactory since the first of September last. 

 Rate of freight to Copenhagen for instance, has advanced 

 from say 42/6 to 160 shillings, which advance in connec- 

 tion with the war risk and rate of exchange, has advanced 

 the actual cost of mild cured salmon to buyers fully 5c 

 per pound. Notwithstanding, however, this additional cost, 

 buyers have taken delivery of greater portion of quantities 

 named in contracts, spring packing of 1914 on the Colum- 

 bia river, and Alaska and Sacramento fish, evidencing 

 beyond question that consumers in Germany demand 

 smoked salmon even at present high prices. 



In view of the foregoing, and, in fact, actual existing 

 conditions as to finances, value of salmon as a food pro- 

 duct compared with all other food products, why should 

 salmon not move freely to the United States markets dur- 

 ing the next ninety days, and if Eastern buyers purchased 

 freely we may eliminate the illusionary export demand. 

 If, on the other hand, export demand should materialize, 

 handlers of salmon in the Eastern states will pay dear 



for the desultory and abnormally light demand for the 

 past ninety days. 



ANDERSON & COLTMAN, LTD. 



At the end of the year 1913 we ventured so far beyond 

 the scope of our usual report as to express the opinion that 

 there was nothing to prevent the continuation of the then 

 good demand, and that it would not require to continue 

 very long in order to increase the value of Salmon espe- 

 cially in view of the fact that holders of stock would not 

 run their stocks very low, because the 1914 pack would 

 almost certainly lie held for a much higher range of prices 

 than those then ruling. It happens that the above sugges- 

 tion contained in advance practically all the history of the 

 1914 Salmon campaign. The suggestions, however, which 

 we made were fulfilled very much more quickly than we 

 anticipated, and the advanced price of the 1914 pack was in 

 fact established on a much higher basis than we antici- 

 pated, and at a much earlier period of the year, because at 

 about the beginning of February, 1914. the market was 

 established for the season's pack at an advance over the 

 1913 price, equivalent to the increase of value which usually 

 takes two years to establish. In other words the 1914 pack 

 was practically all marketed at prices which in the ordi- 

 nary way would not have been justified until 1915. 



This advance in value was not the result of any manipu- 

 lation on the part of the packers; it was simply the result 

 of competition amongst the buyers. The packers would 

 have preferred to leave the marketing of their goods until 

 much later in the year, but the prices which were offered 

 by the buyers were so good that they considered that it 

 would have been improvident to have refused them. The 

 demand has been well maintained right through the year, 

 and the deliveries during some months have beaten any 

 previous record, but it must be remembered that the prices 

 paid in the early spring for the 1914 pack did not produce 

 any immediate effect upon the prices charged to retailers 

 for the 1913 pack, so that while the importers were paying 

 increased prices in anticipation of the demand during the 

 Autumn of 1914 and Spring of 1915, they were to a very 

 large extent giving their customers the full benefit of the 

 lower prices at which the 1913 pack had been imported, and 

 it seems that the business has been so well managed that 

 the consumption has not been retarded, and at the same 

 time the stocks have not been allowed to be unduly de- 

 pleted, and there are, in fact, sufficient stocks on hand and 

 coming forward of nearly all kinds of Salmon to meet a 

 normal demand until the 1915 pack becomes available. 



It is impossible to avoid in any Market Review a refer- 

 ence to the conflict in which our nation is unfortunately 

 involved, but there is probably no article which has been 

 less affected by the war than Canned Salmon. For a few 

 days in early August some high prices were paid by buyers 

 who insisted on making purchases from unwilling sellers, 

 but otherwise we believe that the market is simply follow- 

 ing the same course as it would have done if there had been 

 no war, except that it has had to bear extra insurance and 

 freight charges, but these have not proved to be a burden 

 which the article was incapable of bearing. 



Alaska Reds. — In January, 1914, the spot value was 21/6 

 ex wharf, and the forward value 22/-, but prices gradually 

 strengthened and reached 22/6 ex store in March, 23/6 in 

 May. At this price they remained until the first week in 

 August when 28/- ex store was made for limited quantities. 

 This price was not maintained, and in the early part of 

 September 26/6 was accepted, and in the latter part of Sep- 

 tember 26/-. The value has remained in the region of 26/- 

 to 26/9 until the time of writing. The demand for Alaska 

 Salmon was undoubtedly affected by the unfortunate fact 

 that a considerable portion of the pack was affected by the 

 excessive heat which occurred in Alaska during a few days 

 of the packing. This excessive heat, which exceeded any- 

 thing known in the previous thirty years, rendered Alaska 

 Salmon less reliable in quality than is usually the case, and 

 consequently holders showed more anxiety to get the goods 

 into consumption than the general conditions of the market 

 and anticipation of the price of the 1914 pack would in 

 themselves have justified. 



It was generally expected that the opening price of the 

 1914 pack would lie in the region of 24/- to 25/-, but early in 

 the new year a quantity estimated at 50,000 cases was 

 placed at about 22/6, and this caused a certain amount of 



