XII THE DEPRESSION OF TRADE 193 



from the beginning of the period to the end, but our 

 exports follow a totally different course. They went on 

 increasing pretty steadily and regularly, and then rather 

 suddenly, and especially suddenly from 1870 to 1872. 

 The years 1872 and 1873 marked the culminating points 

 of our commercial prosperity. Then there commenced — 

 what I think cannot be found in all the records of our 

 export trade — a rapid and remarkable decline, which 

 continued right on, without any break, down to the year 

 1879. From that time it began to rise again, and has 

 risen with fluctuations up to the present time ; but even 

 now (1885) it does not attain the culminating point it 

 reached in 1872, thirteen years before. But owing to 

 our increase of population and progressive increase of 

 total wealth, we ought to have had a continuous increase 

 of our exports much larger than that which has actually 

 occurred. 



Another indication of the course of the depression is 

 afforded by the number of bankruptcies which took place 

 during that same period. I will state briefly what are 

 the facts. In the year 1870— that is, during the period 

 of our prosperity — the annual bankruptcies were about 

 5,000, including bankruptcies and compositions with 

 creditors. Shortly after the depression had commenced 

 in 1875 they had reached 7,900. In the year 1879, when 

 the depression had reached its height, they had amounted 

 to no less than over 13,000. From that time they dim- 

 inished in number to 9,000 in 1882 and 8,500 in" 1883 ; 

 and in 1884 — almost all whose affairs were in a bad wav 

 having become bankrupt — they decreased to about 4,000. 

 These numbers illustrate and enforce the diagram of 

 exports, showing that the bankruptcies began to increase 

 just after the culmination of our commercial prosperity, 

 so that there is no doubt whatever that the real depression 

 commenced about the year 1873 or 1874. This is impor- 

 tant, because many writers insist upon leaving out of the 

 question altogether this long continuance of the depression, 

 and they treat it as a comparatively recent thing, which 

 has entirely come on in the last two or three years ; and, 

 in fact, one of the two prize essays which have been 



VOL. II. O 



