31 



The principal producing industries of the 

 place may increase irrespective of othar 

 local divisions, as their products- agricul- 

 tural, pastoral, and mining — may find 

 readily enough the necessary purchasers 

 in foreign markets. Whatever influence 

 therefore, may bar the progress of the 

 dominating producing industries of the 

 place must also bar occupations in all 

 other divisions of services. 



So far as the State of Tasmania is 

 concerned, I am of opinion that the 

 rate of annual increase — viz., 1'64 per 

 cent per annum — would be the most 

 satisfactory base for forming an estimate 

 of her population 100 years hence. Not- 

 withstanding the favourable and ex- 

 ceptional experience of the United States 

 of America, which has increased its 

 population at the very high annual rate of 

 2-70 per cent during the 100 years endmg 

 the year 1900, and notwithstanding that 

 the Australasian colonies, as a whole, 

 increased at the high annual rate of 6o7 

 per cent during the last century — I am of 

 opinion it would be altogether improbable 

 that either Tasmania or the other States 

 of the Australian Commonwealth could 

 maintain in the growth of popula- 

 tion, a higher rate of annual increase 

 during the whole course of the next 100 

 years — than that experienced by Tas- 

 mania during the last decade, viz., 1*64 

 per cent per annum. The following are 

 the main considerations which have guided 

 me in arriving at conclusions on this sub- 

 ject ; — The relatively more rapid rate of 

 growth of population in young countries — 

 especially in the earlier stages of settle- 

 ment — is mainly due to the following in- 

 fluences : (1) The influx of a continuous 

 stream of immigrants producing, at first, 

 to a small population, a much larger 

 proportion of the annual increase than the 

 ultimate major source of increase, viz., 

 the annual rate of natural increase, or the 

 excess of births over deaths. For example, 

 to a population of say 200,000, an influx 

 in one year of 20,000 immigrants would 

 represent an annual increase of as much 

 as 10 per cent., while the normal natural 

 increase would be above the average if it 

 amounted to 2 per cent., representing only 

 an increase of 4000. At a later stage 

 when the population reached 10,000,000, 

 an influx of 50,000 immigrants in one 

 year would only represent one-half 



per cent., while the natural increase 

 of say 2 per cent, would add as much to 

 its population in one year as 200,000. 

 This is the true reason why such abnormal 

 annual rates of increase occur in the 

 earlier decades of the wonderful develop- 

 ment of these Australasian colonies, and 

 it explains why the high annual rate of 

 increase of 11*27 per cent, in the decade 

 ending in the year 1861 has gradually 

 fallen until it reached the average of only 

 178 per cent, per annum during the 

 decade ending in the year 1901. The 

 following table further illustrates the 

 fluctuating character of the earlier periods 

 of high rates of increase due to influx of 

 immigrants in young countries, as con- 

 trasted with the more normal progress of 

 the United Kingdom with its great 

 density of population, in which the 

 influence of migration on its annual rate 

 of increase is so comparatively small that 

 it may be altogether ignored : — 



Annual Rate of Increase of Popula- 

 tion During the Last Century in 

 Old and Young Countries Com- 

 pared. 



POPULATION. 



- 71-80 26-62 28-64 10-89 16-35 

 f 92-79 35-71 65-71 3929 42-61 

 '•' Average of the last century (years). 

 t Average of the last decade (years), 

 (2.) The preceding table clearly demon- 

 strates not only that the annual rate of 

 increase of population in the younger 

 countries is rapidly approaching the 

 normal rates of the older and more 



