8^ 



densely-populated centres of population, 

 but also, as regards the latter, there is 

 evidence of another cause in operation 

 during the last decade, having the etfect 

 of still lov^^ering the annual rate of increase 

 of the population. From the beginning 

 of the year 1881 the statistics of the 

 United Kingdom and of the Australasian 

 Colonies show, unmistakably, that a 

 great change has taken place as regards 

 the social conditions of the people, and 

 specially affecting the birth- rate in these 

 countries. My friend, Mr Coghlan, the 

 distinguished statistician of New South 

 Wales, has made a special study of this 

 important matter. In his statistical 

 account of " The Seven Colonies of Aus- 

 tralasia, 1901-1902 " (pp. 502-503) he has 

 made the following important observa- 

 tions : " It is a matter of common know- 

 ledge that for some years past the birth- 

 rate in Australasia has been declining, and 

 so important is the subject — not only as 

 regards the growth of population, but also 

 as affecting general progress — that in 

 1899 the author made a special investiga- 

 tion into the question of childbirth in 

 Australia, but more particularly with 

 reference to New South Wales. The con- 

 clusions arrived at with respect to that 

 State, however, may be held to obtain for 

 all the others, seeing the conditions of 

 living do not differ materially in any of 

 them. During the course of the investi- 

 gation it was found, first, that for all 

 women the proportion of fecund marriages 

 is decreasing ; second, that among fecund 

 women the birth-rate is much reduced as 

 compared with what it was twenty years 

 ago. . . It was also found that the 

 decline has been persistent and regular 

 since 1881, and this restriction of births 

 in a young country like Australia, where 

 immigration is discouraged, is a matter 

 which must have far-reaching results 

 although its economic effects are only 

 beginning to be seen, and should claim 

 the serious consideration of all thought- 

 ful people." It is true that the lowering 

 of the birth-rate, at once, to some extent, 

 operates in reducing the general death- 

 rate also : but the serious decline in the 

 rate of natural increase, as shown in the 

 following summary, is a strong additional 

 reason for caution in forming any estimate 

 of the growth of population in these 

 colonies during the next century : — 



BIRTH-KATE, DEATH-RATE AND NATURAL 



RATE OF INCREASE IN EACH QUINQUENNIUM 



IN AUSTRALASIA, 1861-1900. 



AVERAGE RATE. 



Quin- Birth- Death- Natural 



quennium. rate. rate. Increase. 



1861-65 ... 41-92 1675 25'17 



1866-70 ... 39-84 15 62 2422 



1871-75 ... 37-34 15-20 2208 



1876-80 ... 36-38 15-04 2134 



18S1-85 ... 35 21 14-79 20-42 



188690 ... 34-43 13-95 20-48 



1891-95 ... 31-55 12-76 2079 



1896-1900 ... 27-31 12-20 15-11 



I have thus given, as briefly as the 

 nature of the subject permits, the reason- 

 ing upon which, elsewhere, I have chosen 

 to base my estimate of the growth of 

 population in this State upon the latest 

 rates of annual increase, rather than upon 

 averages, which include the differing 

 conditions of the earlier periods, in- 

 volving as they do the unrehable 

 disturbing conditions and non-recur- 

 ring abnormal proportional increases, 

 due to influx of immigrants. It is 

 even doubtful if the lower average rates 

 of increase of the last decade can be 

 maintained over so long a period as the 

 next 100 years ; but when we consider 

 that the nearness of the United States of 

 America, with her still vast areas of 

 undeveloped lands open to the surplus 

 population of Europe, her rapidly growing 

 density of population, with the resulting 

 congestion of her labor market, perhaps 

 may favor a diversion of a very much 

 larger proportion of European surplus 

 labor to Australia within the next thirty 

 or forty years. We have, therefore, good 

 reason for the belief that the higher stages 

 of development in the United States, in 

 the coming century, may specially favor 

 the progress of the Australasian group. 

 An estimate prepared by me, based upon 

 the experience of twenty-one great coun- 

 tries, with a population of jver 400 

 millions, demonstrates that the present 

 civilisation requires the cultivation of 

 2.25 acres per head for food and raw 

 products. The present area of the 

 United States is reckoned at about 2291 

 million acres. Allowing a need of the 

 estimated requirement of cultivated 

 land, viz., 2.25 acres per head, for supply- 

 ing the whole round of wants of each 

 person, and that three-fourths of her total 



