52 The Inexhaustible Resource of Technology 



rior iron ores would be exhausted before 1940,^ and J. J. Hill, of 

 railroad fame, expected that our supply of some varieties of timber 

 would be practically exhausted in ten or twelve years. He was, more- 

 over, concerned that the yield per acre for various agricultural prod- 

 ucts had decreased, and attributed this diminishing return to soil 

 destruction. His statement, "We are approaching the point where all 

 our wheat product will be needed for our own uses, and we shall cease 

 to be an exporter of grain," might well be regarded as wishful think- 

 ing today rather than as a matter of deep concern.^ 



Similar predictions were made concerning essentially all of the nat- 

 ural resources. One speaker, in one of the first of the many similar 

 statements that have followed, reported that "The supply of natural 

 oil and gas is limited and uncertain and the amount available is re- 

 quired for special industries." ^ He also anticipated exhaustion of 

 domestic anthracite coal supplies in sixty to seventy years. Other 

 speakers predicted exhaustion of phosphate supplies for fertilizer, one 

 of them expecting it to be so nearly in the future that he reported 

 that "there is not fertilizer enough to be gotten in the market to sup- 

 ply all the American farmers." '^ 



Equally bleak forecasts for future water-power supplies were made, 

 and Hill's concern over the future supplies of agricultural and forest 

 products was endorsed. An electrical engineer, for example, reported 

 that "The supply of water power is limited . . . and great care must 

 be exercised to insure [its] preservation . . ."^ 



It is not likely that many of the speakers unreservedly accepted one 

 Governor's prediction that "The American people are on the verge of 

 a timber famine," ^ but the concept of exhaustion was widely ac- 

 cepted and appears to have dominated the conference's deliberations. 



Other views were, of course, expressed, and some of them are not 

 at all dissimilar to much of present-day thinking. Two speakers par- 



^ Andrew Carnegie, "The Conservation of Ores and Related Minerals," idem, 

 p. 17. 



^ James J. Hill, "The Natural Wealth of the Land and Its Conservation," 

 idem, p. 72. 



^H. St. Clair Putnam, "Conservation of Power Resources," idem, p. 293. 



'^ James Wilson, "Address by the Secretary of Agriculture," idem, p. 97. 



8 H. St. Clair Putnam, op. cit., p. 295. 



3 Edwin S. Stuart, "Conservation of Pennsylvania's Resources," idem, p. 327. 



