70 Technology on the Land 



that price of timber in general will rise at about the same rate as price 

 of competing materials. 



Compared with past trends in performance the job ahead appears 

 to be substantial. Like Dr. Nolan, I am optimistic about the future. 

 Also like him, I place my chief reliance on science and technology. But 

 many difficult problems of adjustment still lie ahead. The question is 

 not whether we can produce enough, but rather at what cost. I can- 

 not subscribe to Dr. Nolan's assumption that the economic aspects of 

 conservation will solve themselves. It is not enough to say that in- 

 creased requirements will bring higher prices. These higher prices 

 mean higher costs. Therefore, less total resources will be available to 

 be spent for other production goods, and the higher cost of certain 

 resources will limit the potential rise in our level of living. Illustra- 

 ting this point in terms of nonrenewable minerals, it is not enough to 

 discover low-grade minerals that can be used as a substitute for the 

 higher grades that are exhausted. It is necessary to discover new 

 technology that will close the gap in the cost of using the lower-grade 

 minerals as compared with the higher grades. Otherwise, more of 

 other resources (labor and other capital) will be required to satisfy 

 the demand. 



There are other conservation problems about which we should not 

 be complacent. Destructive agents — principally insects and disease 

 — still take a heavy toll of our forests. About one-fourth of our forest 

 land is poorly stocked. Some 50 million acres, or about one acre out 

 of every ten of commercial forest land in the continental United States, 

 is in need of planting or some other means of artificial regeneration 

 to restore a timber stand within a reasonable time. Much of the tim- 

 ber being grown is of kinds and quality not harvested. Of the timber 

 being harvested, about one-fourth is still not utilized for any purpose 

 — not even for fuel. 



Despite all our current efforts in conservation, the soils of the 

 United States are still deteriorating. The problem varies by region. In 

 areas of the Southeast and along the Eastern Seaboard where erosion 

 is being well managed, cultivated soils today are better than they ever 

 were, primarily perhaps because their initial productivity was so low. 

 There is still much serious erosion in the Southeast and practically all 

 southern soils need further improvement. Much of the Northeast is on 



