148 MULTIPLE PURPOSE RIVER DEVELOPMENT 



higher recreational values (for which there are no adequate esti- 

 mates of monetary value commensurate with other data employed 

 in our analysis) would justify the Hells Canyon High Dam. It is 

 apparent that for any reasonable value of the increased recreational 

 potentialities attributable to the High Dam, however, the added 

 $211 million of investment would represent a substantial churning 

 of economic activity, income redistribution, etc. While there may 

 be no net loss resulting, there would not be any clearly demon- 

 strable gain. If an opportunity cost of 5.5 per cent is attributed to 

 the capital funds raised for development of the Hells Canyon 

 Reach, therefore, there is no clear-cut evidence that the three-dam 

 scheme is less efficient than the High Dam. 



of stream flows associated with an average of 366,650 additional acres of 

 up-stream irrigation and a critical period of thirty-two to thirty-four months. 

 Employing Cotton's estimates expressed as average annual prime power, the 

 output appropriate to the two alternatives would be, respectively, 893,100 and 

 598,000 kilowatts. Although the total annual benefits ($38,739,000 and |26,365,- 

 000, respectively) would be smaller than those appearing in the text, the 

 difference between the High and three low dams ($12.4 million) would be 

 larger. Even so, the incremental bene6t-to-cost ratio would not exceed unity. 

 An objection to this result relates to the fact the conclusion is based on data 

 employing an annual average of fifty years, whereas added depletion of stream 

 flows may result over the remaining fifty years of the amortization period. As 

 a rough check, we can use data presented by Witness Riter which are con- 

 sistent with Cotton's estimates, save for failure to include additional power 

 output resulting from system integration and an estimated higher rate of 

 additional irrigated acreages. Riter's estimate for increased acreages under 

 irrigation (1,140,000 acres by the end of the amortization period, or an average 

 of 631,000 for the time span) is approximately double that of Cotton's whose 

 data are based on the commonly accepted estimates of the Columbia Basin 

 Inter-Agency Committee. Accordingly, we can consider Riter's estimates as 

 appropriate to the 100-year amortization schedule and approximate results by 

 the following means: Prime power output is estimated to fall from an initial 

 amount of 1,108,000 kilowatts to 679,000 kilowatts by the end of the amortiza- 

 tion period for the High Dam, and from 660,000 to 509,000 kilowatts for the 

 three-dam plan. If we assume that the decrements in each case occur in equal 

 annual amounts, we can infer the time distribution of the total prime power 

 output and obtain the present value of the stream of benefits when discounted 

 at 5.5 per cent. Similarly, the annual operating and maintenance costs can be 

 discounted to the present and added to the original investment. The resulting 

 difference in present value of the stream of benefits from the High Dam over 

 the three low dams is about $317.7 million, compared with a difference in cost 

 of $287 million. This results in a ratio of added benefits to the added costs of 

 1.3:1 from the High Dam plan over the three dams. 



