CHAPTER 1 



History and Introduction 



1.1 HISTORY 



The word "statistics," the associated mathematical analyses, and 

 the general process of statistical reasoning appear to have begun their 

 evolution around the time of Aristotle. This evolution can be de- 

 scribed in terms of the following four phases, some of which occurred 

 simultaneously among different groups of persons: 



(1.11) An early, highly philosophical, study of "matters of state" 

 which did little more for the statistical science used today than help 

 to suggest its name. 



(1.12) A semi-numerical and strongly sociological stage typified 

 by the mathematical and philosophical study of large groups of 

 numerical measurements bearing on health, insurance, foreign and 

 domestic trade, and political matters. 



(1.13) The development of the mathematical theory of probabil- 

 ity starting in the sixteenth century with mathematical attacks on 

 the various problems associated with games of chance. 



(1.14) The current phase, starting late in the nineteenth century, 

 during which phases (1.12) and (1.13) were combined, improved, and 

 extended to produce a branch of mathematics which can handle a 

 wide variety of problems pertaining to the drawing of valid and use- 

 ful inferences from relatively small groups of numerical measure- 

 ments. 



During Aristotle's time interest developed in comparative descrip- 

 tions of states. Aristotle is reported * to have written at least one 

 hundred and fifty-eight descriptions of states, covering their histories, 

 public administrations, arts, sciences, and religious practices. It was 

 customary to refer to such compositions as treatises on "matters of 

 state." That apparently is an important part of the origin of the 



* Harald L. Westergaard (1942), Contributions to the History of Statistics, 

 King. 



