ECONOMIC PHASES 163 



cessive favorable seasons and high yields have given us the largest 

 production of corn during 1919, 1920, and 1921 of any three-year 

 period in our history. The present corn surplus is the largest on 

 record. Since corn is the basis of our meat making industry we can 

 scarcely expect any great increase in live-stock prices in the near 

 future, altho we may logically expect the price of corn to approximate 

 the level of live-stock prices before many months have passed. While 

 the price of wheat is considerably below the level of general com- 

 modity prices, it is substantially above the pre-war figure and some- 

 what above the level of general farm prices. This is no doubt due to 

 the very considerable exports of wheat made during 1921. 



We know also that as long as we do not have general prosperity, 

 the consumption of farm products in the United States must of neces- 

 sity be below normal. Europe is now, and must remain for a long 

 time, on a subnormal basis of consumption with reference to farm 

 products. In view of these facts, he is an optimist indeed who can 

 see any great prospect for a recovery in the price of farm products 

 within the next twelve months. 



If prices must reach a common level, and the prices of farm 

 products offer no prospect of substantial early recovery, it does not 

 require more than one shrewd guess as to what must happen to 

 prices. One and only one conclusion remains ; the price of goods 

 made by the city industries must come down. It is only a question 

 of how long we wish to defer the return to a reasonable measure 

 of prosperity. This conclusion in fact offers the first, and in my 

 judgment, the most important measure of early relief to the farmer 

 in his present difficult situation. 



This price problem, which just now confronts the farmer in 

 somewhat acute form, is a good example of the kind of question in 

 which the farmer must be continually exercising his individual business 

 judgment. Obviously, he cannot himself assemble the information 

 necessary to making such judgments intelligently. He must depend 

 upon federal, state, or private institutions to supply him with basic 

 information in this field. The price studies made during the past two 

 or three years by the U. S. Bureau of Labor, by the College of Agri- 

 culture of Cornell University, and by other agencies, public and 

 private, are good examples of the kind of service which the Agricul- 

 tural College and Experiment Station should render in increasing 

 measure in the future. Without such information, both the individual 

 farmer and his organization will be working largely in the dark in 

 attempting to solve many of their economic conditions. 



