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STATEMENT OF ROBBIN JOHNSON, CARGILL, INC., PRE- 

 SENTED BY M. STEPHANIE PATRICK, ASSISTANT VICE PRESI- 

 DENT 



Ms. Patrick. My name is Stephanie Patrick. I am appearing on 

 behalf of Robbin Johnson. I am an assistant vice president of 

 Cargill, Inc. I have with me a detailed written statement and I ask 

 it be made part of the record. 



Mr. Penny. Without objection. 



Ms. Patrick. There are a number of powerful forces shaping the 

 global marketplace between now and the end of the century. The 

 conclusion and the implementation of the GATT, no doubt, is one 

 of the most significant. Trade liberalization has been proven to pro- 

 pel economic growth, and that alone is significant for agricultural 

 producers. When liberalization is coupled with the Uruguay 

 Round's market access and subsidy disciplines, American agri- 

 culture is handed an opportunity to compete on terms that are not 

 perfect, but far better than in recent history. 



The written statement considers the past 25 years of agricultural 

 trade. The 1970's were boom years. The 1980's were the bust. The 

 situation started to improve in the latter part of the 1980's with 

 policies focusing on assistance to farmers and initiatives to make 

 products more competitive. 



The first four years of the 1990's seem to be following that same 

 path. Most American farm goods, once again, are trading competi- 

 tively in world markets, but many in striking new forms. Bulk 

 grains and oilseeds no longer account for the majority of export re- 

 turns. Higher value products have moved to the top of the list. This 

 is a noteworthy trend. U.S. sales of high value animal products 

 have more than tripled in the past 10 years, allowing the United 

 States to pick up larger shares in a growing marketplace. 



The trend in bulk exports is also noteworthy for the contrast it 

 shows with high value sales. There, too, the world market has 

 grown at a healthy pace, but without the participation of the Unit- 

 ed States. In no category has the United States picked up market 

 share in recent years. 



Some of the reasons for the poor performance have been well be- 

 yond the control of policymakers or exporters or producers. There 

 have been weather shocks, there was the collapse of demand from 

 Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and there have been 

 trade rules that were too weak to discipline unfair competition. But 

 some of the problem has been policy driven: Excessive reliance on 

 acreage controls, misguided export policies, and inattention to ef- 

 fective market development. 



Looking ahead, we see the next 5 years giving more significant 

 change than we have had recently, and it reflects a number of fun- 

 damental shifts. I am going to focus on four today. They are struc- 

 tural, macroeconomic, environmental, and technological. 



Structural. The structural changes are many, and they are quite 

 complex. Each deserves substantial analysis to capture all of its 

 nuances, but here are several, and what might be their implica- 

 tions. Subsidized exports of competitors will decline both in volume 

 and as a share of global grains and oilseeds trade, falling to less 

 than 5 percent of the global marketplace by the year 2000. This de- 



