38 



And I think the combination of the two at this moment in his- 

 tory, which I am sure trade negotiators didn't think about in 1986, 

 is probably going to be one of the biggest benefits of the Uruguay 

 Round. Because as you begin to develop a viable private sector in 

 countries and you begin to use resources effectively and efficiently, 

 and capital efficiently, you are going to start to see economic 

 growth pulling demand for products and pulling greater oppor- 

 tunity to trade our product. And we certainly know that agriculture 

 is one of the primary beneficiaries as countries move up the eco- 

 nomic scale. 



So I think once we get through these hardships of countries in 

 transition, be they in the former Soviet Union, in North Africa — 

 Algeria is starting to adopt a market system — Sub-Saharan Africa, 

 parts of Latin America, Asia, this is where it is happening — China, 

 Vietnam — that we are going to see a big draw. So I would say we 

 are probably at — I would agree with you that we are probably at 

 a four today, four to five, but depending how rapidly, there are two 

 factors that are going to determine how much the Uruguay Round 

 is effective. 



I think we could jump up to a seven if we can get real economic 

 growth going in countries around the world and sustain these poli- 

 cies, and at the same time enforce with a whip the real implement- 

 ing provisions of the Uruguay Round in agriculture and make sure 

 that we set a precedent that the Uruguay Round is to liberalize 

 markets, that we go after countries one after another that don't fol- 

 low the spirit as well as the letter of the agreement. 



So I think we could jump up to a seven by the end of this century 

 if we can get both those things happening. 



Mr. Stenholm. Mr. Bovee. 



Mr. Bovee. I believe we are probably at somewhere around a 

 four, in that area. Difficult to quantify. But one of the challenges, 

 I believe, that we have and that we are seeing is not only in selling 

 commodities but how we market them, how we finance them, the 

 demand for credit. There are a number of viable markets that are 

 just coming out of severe problems such as Russia where they do 

 not have a viable infrastructure to take advantage and really be 

 able to buy on a credit basis as we envision that. 



So I think there is a challenge and somehow the exporting com- 

 munity needs to help develop that, however they may, to help us 

 long term in the financing and further sale of exports and agricul- 

 tural commodities into those types of markets. 



Ms. Patrick. I don't think there is any doubt that if you look 

 across different sectors of the economy and where we are as far as 

 free trade is concerned, agriculture is lagging in a lot of areas. So 

 the number that I would assign at the present time would be some- 

 where below five. Four would probably be as good as any. 



It is absolutely critical how we go about the implementation of 

 the Uruguay Round. There may be a new avenue of trade barriers 

 that are imposed. We want to make certain that whatever kinds of 

 programs that we structure, that we don't make ourselves victims 

 of what, in fact, are legitimate barriers. 



There is also the question of whether the European Community 

 lives up to its part of the bargain in the Andre Edison agreement. 

 So the U.S. negotiators have a job to do as well. Trade policy is 



