104 



Looking Ahead 



The next five years are likely to see more significant change, 

 reflecting a number of fundamental shifts. Four I will focus 

 on are structural, macroeconomic, environmental and 

 technological . 



Structural. Structural changes are many and they are complex. 

 Each deserves substantial analysis to capture all of its 

 nuances. But here are some key shifts and what may be their 

 implications: 



o Subsidized exports of competitors will decline in both 

 volume and as a share of global grains and oilseeds trade, 

 falling to less than 5 percent of the global marketplace 

 by the year 2000. This decline is explicit in the UR text 

 and often, it is read to mean that the GATT agreement 

 "legalizes" export subsidies. That is a narrow 

 perspective on a large agreement. The UR also is explicit 

 in granting those who signed it the right to seek redress 

 from unfair trade practices. Today, roughly 40 nations 

 have implemented countervailing duty and anti-dumping laws 

 that give individuals the right to file cases with their 

 governments against unfair imports and the list is 

 growing. Domestic producers in any nation do not want — 

 not should they have to accept — unfair competition. The 

 UR recognizes that right. And, it may lead to a more 

 rapid decline in export subsidies than envisioned in the 

 Dunkel text. It may also rein in less visible, but 

 unfair, practices to which the United States has objected. 



o A more privatized global agricultural economy will 

 develop as governments retreat from control of 

 agricultural production and trade in the face of mounting 

 costs, and falling performance. Private importers buy 

 differently than monolithic buying boards. Their focus 

 often includes quality and other terms of sale, as well as 

 price. 



o The populous, rapidly developing economies of Asia will 

 experience income-driven improvements in their diets, 

 supporting steady and significant growth in imports of 

 grains, oilseeds and livestock products. Growth also is 

 projected throughout the Western Hemisphere. Unlike 

 growth we saw 20 years ago, this seems founded on solid 

 economics — not borrowed dollars. 



o As trade barriers are capped and progressively reduced, 

 future expansion in production and trade increasingly will 

 reflect cost and comparative advantages. This should be 

 particularly positive for resource-rich, technologically 

 productive U.S. agriculture. 



