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agricultural negotiations in the NAFTA, leaving the U. S. fanners 

 to reap the increase in farm trade. 



As the International Trade Commission's report pointed out, 

 the NAFTA' s impact on the United States will vary by region and 

 product. The report "Potential Impact on the U.S. Economy and 

 Selected Industries of the North American Free Trade Agreement", 

 which was written by the Commission, stated it correctly - that 

 there would be short-term and long-term effects by the trade 

 agreement. The report said, in part, that the NAFTA is expected 

 to expand U.S. -Mexican trade substantially. The estimated gains 

 in U.S. exports to Mexico range from 5.2% to 27.1%. The projected 

 increases in U.S. imports from Mexico range from 3.4% to 15.4%. 



The projected long-term gains in aggregate employment are 

 less than one percent for the United States and Canada, but are 

 up to almost seven percent for Mexico. The expected increases in 

 the average real wages are 0.3% or less for the United States, 

 0.5% or less for Canada, and 0.7% to 16.2% for Mexico. Although 

 the evidence on the direction of real wage effects for low- and 

 high-skilled U.S. workers is mixed, the preponderance of evidence 

 indicates an indiscernible effect on the United States' wage 

 rates for both low- and high-skilled workers. 



According to the report, Mexico's improved access to ad- 

 vanced technology could lead to a long-term increase in Mexico's 

 rate of economic growth. As longstanding participants in a global 

 open trading regime, the United States and Canada may not realize 

 substantial dynamic gains from the NAFTA, but will benefit from 



