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capacity of those Installed facilities, no additional plant Is needed; the 

 existing assumed facilities will cover the reserve requirement for FY 1987. 



III. Expected Use of DSI Restriction Rights 



A. Forced Outage Reserves 



Hourly output from the Pacific Northwest System Analysis Model 

 (SAM) Is used to determine the probability and amount of forced outages 

 covered by BPA's restriction rights In the FY 1987 test year. SAM models the 

 economic operation of Pacific Northwest resources, hydro and thermal. Since 

 SAM performs a Monte Carlo simulation, the user has the option of simulating 

 random water years, random thermal resource arrival and performance, and loads 

 of constant standard deviation centered on a given load forecast. The results 

 of the studies showed no expected forced outages over the seven years of the 

 planning horizon, basically due to the forecasted surplus. 



B. Stability Reserves 



Currently, no analysis of expected use is performed for stability 

 reserves. 



C. Plant Delay Reserves 



The SAM is used to determine the probability of expected outages 

 due to delay of a generating resource from the planned Initial date of 



A-5 



