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Soviet Grain Outlook 



For the July/June 1992/93 year, USDA predicts that wheat imports in the 

 former Soviet Union, including the Baltic States, will be 15.5 million metric 

 tons, or about 70 percent of last year's level. This reflects a decrease in 

 demand because of an improved harvest, and decreased outside financing. The 

 1992/1993 forecast for coarse grains, calculated on an October/September 

 international marketing year, is expected to be about 10.5 million tons, or 56 

 percent of last year's level. 



For Russia, our best estimates indicate that they must import at least 

 11-12 million metric tons of wheat from July 1, 1992, through June 30, 1993, 

 to meet pressing food needs. Sales commitments by the major exporters are 9 

 million tons, including 2.5 million tons from the United States, 5 million 

 tons from the EC, and 1.5 million tons from Canada. There is little chance 

 for Russia to purchase under credit terms more grain from the EC, France, or 

 Canada, leaving at least a 2-3 million metric ton wheat shortfall before new 

 1993/94 crop harvesting begins in Russia this July. 



Coarse grain imports by Russia in the current October/September year may 

 be 8.5 million tons, of which approximately 1.5 million tons of corn and 

 barley, are still needed. Smaller livestock herds and high meat prices limit 

 demand for grains to feed animals, but, to stabilize production this shortfall 



