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The former Soviet Union total grain imports are forecast at just over 30 

 million tons, down about 12 million from 1991/92. The decrease reflects more 

 domestic grain output, less grain for feed use, and severe hard currency 

 constraints. 



We estimate total 1992 grain output in the FSU was about 185 million tons, 

 up about 33 million tons from 1991' s poor showing, but just below the 1986-90 

 average of 186 million tons, which includes only wheat, coarse grains, and 

 milled rice. Grain production in Russia is up 20 percent from the 

 drought-affected 1991 crop. 



Although some steps were made toward reforming the domestic grain market 

 and introducing market-oriented mechanisms and incentives in 1992, they were 

 not enough to induce producers to sell enough grain to the major metropolitan 

 areas. 



Instead, producers have, in many instances, chosen to hold grain for feed 

 use or as an inflation hedge, despite a lack of appropriate storage. This 

 grain effectively remains out of reach of the urban areas now facing 

 shortages, due to continued disruptions in the immature domestic grain 

 markets, breakdowns in logistical and transport capacity, and basic 

 unwillingness of untrusting Russian producers to release grain to the state on 

 the basis of a promise that they will be paid someday. 



