70 



-15- 



It Is highly unrealistic to expect that Moscow, St. Petersburg and other 

 major cities would have made such an adjustment in a little over a year. 

 Thus they find themselves dependent, for at least the time being, upon central 

 Russian Government authorities. 



The situation bears the additional political dimension of historical 

 Russian sensitivity to food shortages. The issue is not merely one of 

 assuring adequacy of nutrition or of caloric intake. 



It is, rather, an even more volatile issue, one revolving around potential 

 erosion of public support for the reformers in Russia if they cannot ensure 

 stable and sufficient supplies of staples. 



Could Russia use more imports? Yes— meat production declined 10 percent 

 in 1992 from the previous year. Recovery and growth in the Russian livestock 

 sector will be impeded by declining demand due to drastically reduced consumer 

 purchasing power, a shortage of high protein feeds that caused herd 

 reductions, and disruption in the marketing infrastructure caused by the 

 re-orientation toward a market economy. 



Soybean oil and meal are both in very short supply in the FSU, and 

 vegetable oil is the scarcest of the oilseed commodities. 



