264 



There are also Important diifereaccs. The institutional structure to support individual risk- 

 takers is almost totally lacking in the FSU. There is no locally available system for the registration 

 of title to land. Farm mortgage credit is virtually onknowo. There is no body of contract law 

 tailored to the needs of individual business enterprises or farms. Transfer of funds by the use of 

 bank checks or negotiable instruments (warehouse receipts or bills of lading) has never developed. 

 Insurance for business risk in private-sector agriculture does not exist 



These and many other institutional defects make it likely that, whatever managerial forms 

 evolve from the collapse of communism, the &rm structure that emerges will resemble a share- 

 cropping system. A contractual basis for this evolution already exists in many western-style market 

 economies. Poultry and eggs, many types of vegetable aops, and fed livestock are increasingly 

 being produced in the United States under bailee or custodial contracts that represent highly 

 commercial variants of share-cropping. The grafting of this form of business organization in 

 farming to the remnants of the structure of commimist agriculture can be expected. 



V. Prospective Trends in Orain In^rts 



In 1988/89 and 1989/90 imports by the USSR accounted for over 20 percent of total world 

 trade in wheat and coarse grains combined, and for over one-fourth of total trade in coarse grains 

 considered separately. In 1992/93, imports by the states of the former USSR are fbrecast to drop 

 to only 13.8 percent of total world trade in v^eat and coarse grains, and to only 11.8 percent of 

 trade in coarse grains. 



In vohjme, wheat imports by the USSR in the two years 1988/89 and 1989/90 averaged 1S.9 

 million metric tons annually, while coarse grain imports averaged 24.9 million tons. In 1992/93 

 wheat imports are forecast at 153 million tons, only slightly below the average of 1988/89 and 

 1989/90. In sharp contrast, imports of coarse grains in 1992/93 are forecast to fall to 10.6 milL'on 

 tons or onty 43 percent of the average level of 1988/89-1989/90 (USDA, FAS, FG 3-93, March 

 1993). 



What are the prospects for a continuation of demand for grain on this scale by the states 

 of the FSU7 In the short nm, grain imports are likely to remain large, although falling. By the 

 end of this decade, the situation could reverse dramatically. 



Farm managers of the former USSR know how to produce grain. It is perhaps the major 

 agricultural sector in which productivity increases are similar in trend if not yet in level to those 

 achieved in the grain belts of North America. The removal of bureaucratic interference in the 

 grain economy could go far to correct the past history of enormous losses in handh'ng. storage, and 

 utilization. Losses have exceeded total grain imports in all but a few years in the past tvi^ decades. 



Two forces may bring about this transformation. The Qrst is the emergence of realistic 

 prices for grain, coupled with a reform in procurement methods. In the past almost all loss after 

 grain left the farm was borne by government or its agencies, and did not reduce incomes for any 

 of the individuals involved in the distribution chain. This is sure to change. 



More realistic grain prices will also lead to improved efficiency In use of feed grains. In the 

 past, and today, the fnincipal use of wheat in the FSU was as a feed grain. For the past 15 yean 



