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5 

 Export Outlook 



Growth in export markets will be vital to improving the 

 economic situation in agriculture. The value of U.S. 

 agricultural exports has fluctuated around $40 billion annually 

 since fiscal year 1990, reaching a high of $42 billion in fiscal 

 year 1992. This was the second highest level ever and 60 percent 

 above the lows of the mid-1980's. Exports are forecast to remain 

 close to $42 billion in fiscal year 1993. 



Since 1991, exports of high-value and processed products 

 have surpassed bulk farm products for the first time in the 

 Nation's peacetime history. High-value products are expected to 

 account for the majority of exports for the foreseeable future. 



The prospects for grain and oilseed markets depend partly on 

 our continuing to supply commodities to the Newly Independent 

 States of the former Soviet Union. Over the last 5 years, grain 

 imports of the former Soviet Union have accounted for about 20 

 percent of both world and U.S. grain exports and 7 percent of 

 soybeans and soybean meal exports. A sustained loss of this 

 market would mean lower grain and oilseed prices, higher 

 deficiency payments and lower farm incomes. This Administration 

 places top priority on assisting Russia and the Ukraine to 

 resolve their purchasing problems and to resume exports to this 

 region that has long been a valued customer for U.S. farm 

 products. 



Grain production in the Newly Independent States rose this 

 year by more than 30 million tons. In addition, reduced meat 

 consumption and falling animal numbers are expected to dampen 



