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STATEMENT OF THE NATIONAL FARMERS UNION ON "THE 

 AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR 1993" BEFORE THE U.S. HOUSE 

 COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, FEBRUARY 3, 1993: 



Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am here today on behalf of 

 the 250,000 farming and ranching families of the National 

 Farmers Union, and we appreciate this opportunity to 

 comment on the outlook for agriculture in 1993. We 

 commend you for holding these hearings on this most 

 important subject. 



I would like to begin with a recap of some of the 

 information that was presented at USDA's 69th annual 

 Outlook Conference. I believe that we should take a look 

 at what has been forecasted for 1993 and then try to 

 determine what that means to today's farmers and ranchers. 



INCOME 



Dr. James Donald, chair of the USDA World Agricultural 

 Outlook Board, estimated that 1993 net farm income would 

 be in the range of $42 billion to $48 billion, down from 

 the $51 billion level for 1992. At the midpoint level of 

 this range, that would be a 12 percent drop in net farm 

 income. At the extreme, it would be a 17 percent decline. 



Donald also predicted that U.S. farm exports could 

 decline to $41.5 billion in 1993. This would be a decline 

 of 2 percent from 1992. 



Robert G. McElroy, leader of the ERS economic 

 indicator forecast team, reported that record 1992 

 production would lead to lower 1993 prices. His forecast 

 matched that of Dr. Donald, indicating a 1993 total net 

 farm income of $42 billion to $48 billion. 



McElroy said that change in inventories would be a 

 major factor this year and next in the level of net farm 

 income. He also stated that farm expenses could rise 1 to 

 2 percent in 1993. 



EXPENSES 



Farmers can expect farm input costs to rise about $3 

 billion in 1993. This is a gain of about 2 percent, ERS 

 economists Harold Taylor and Marlow Vesterby told the 

 outlook conference. 



Planted acreage may be less than in 1992, but higher 

 costs will offset the reduced rate of input use. There is 

 a trend to reduce tillage and % a wst larger and more 

 durable eguipment. 



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