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(AAM 03 FEB 93 page #5) 



Most of you probably noticed the better economic news of 

 the past few days. National economic indicators are up. We 

 also should realize that the programs and policies of the new 

 administration could have had little to do with the upswing, 

 as those policies are still being forged. So what caused the 

 turnaround. I suggest it is consumer confidence. People 

 feel better about the future. Let me offer an example. I 

 have a friend who sells new automobiles in a large 

 metropolitan area for a living. He sold three on the entire 

 month of September, and only one in the whole month of 

 October. But on November fourth he sold three, and sold 

 seven more before Thanksgiving. Not a great success story, 

 but one that has a point - people are feeling better about 

 the future. They are satisfying pent -up -demand. 



There is nowhere in the U.S. economy where this pent-up- 

 demand is more extreme than on the farm. America's farmers 

 are attempting to make a living with worn-out equipment. 

 Some surveys show the average age of the newest tractor on 

 the farm today is over twelve years. Do you realize that 

 many of the tractors that graced the Mall around the 

 Washington Monument fourteen years ago are the newest ones on 

 their operations? That is if they were not sold in 

 foreclosure. Farmers need the kind of feeling those new car 

 buyers I talked of earlier. But to get that kind of 

 optimism, they will need assurances of higher prices 

 supported by higher loan rates. Has anyone pondered what 



