147 



RURAL DEVELOPMENT RECONSIDERED: A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE SOUTH 



lower, but increasingly dependent on income transfer payments in place of wages and 

 salaries. The number or working poor is staggering. 



Official measures of unemployment are flawed. Reports of unemployment no longer 

 capture a true picture of the long term unemployed, the discouraged worker or the men, 

 women and youth who have given up trying to find work out of futility. 



Reported "improvements" in "official" unemployment statistics disguise reality. For 

 example, 11 eastern Kentucky counties with real "unofficial" unemployment rates of 10- 

 53% are no longer categorized by the Appalachian Regional Commission as "severely 

 distressed." 



CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS 



Demographic trends during the remainder of this and the beginning of the next century 

 will exacerbate disparities and poverty conditions in the rural South. 



Between 1988-2000, the largest amount of population growth in the country (24%) will 

 occur in the Southeast. Overall, population growth will be concentrated in non-white 

 populations in the South, the West, and the suburbs of the 40 largest metro areas. 



As the 40 largest metro areas continue to attract people and jobs, the viability of rural life 

 will come into question shortly after the year 2000. Clearly, outmigration from rural areas 

 will continue at levels that have reached more than 500,000 annually in recent years. 



By the year 2000, new entrants to the work force will be an 85% combination of 

 immigrants, women and minorities. By the year 2010, the job structure in the country will 

 be even more stratified with about 30-40% of all jobs requiring a college education and 

 paying very well; 30% or more will continue to be "working poor" jobs for high school 

 dropouts. The balance will likely be filled by high school graduates with strong 

 backgrounds in science, math and computer technologies. 



Trends indicate there will be one new job for a computer programmer for every seven 

 jobs for clerk/cashiers. The predominance of lower paying service industry jobs will lead 

 to widely disparate "information rich" and "information poor" societies. 



With higher paying jobs concentrated in large metro areas and the lowest educational 

 attainments as well as service industry jobs in rural areas, rural and urban/suburban 

 social and economic disparity will only widen. 



By the year 2030, the work force that will be supporting a predominantly white elderly 

 population will be only about half white, and younger workers will be 60% minority and 

 female. In many areas of the rural "Black Belt" South, white majorities will be numerically 

 surpassed by racial and ethnic minorities. More elderly of both races will draw on social 

 security and live in rural areas supported by fewer and fewer young workers. 



