167 



— 2 — 



$12.24 per cwt. in 1991. According to preliminary estimates, prices averaged $13.1 1 

 per cwt. during 1992. NMPF, along with most industry sources, is projecting weaker 

 milk prices during 1993, with NMPF's current projection at $12.60 per cwt. 



Information on dairy farm financial conditions is available from USDA only after a 

 substantial period of time. USDA has reported the overall financial position of dairy 

 farms with gross sales of $40,000 or more in 1990 to be as follows: 66.9 percent 

 "favorable", 11.7 percent "marginal income", 16.0 percent "marginal solvency" and 5.3 

 percent "vulnerable." The percentage of dairy farms in the more negative categories in 

 this breakdown will doubtless show increases when 1991 figures become available, 

 since 1991 prices were substantially below 1990 prices in all regions of the country. 



Estimates of the number of commercial dairy farmers in the U.S. currently range 

 between 130,000 and 140,000. 



More specific components of the dairy outlook are as follows: 



Cow numbers 



The nation's milking cow herd started out at the beginning of 1992 over 200,000 cows 

 lower than a year previously. As the year progressed, however, the size of the herd 

 stayed quite steady. Since 1 99 1 was a year during which cow numbers dropped 

 steadily, the gap between 1992 and 1991 narrowed until, at year end, there were only 

 about 70,000 fewer cows than a year ago. During 1992, cow numbers averaged 

 9,849,000 in the U.S., down 141,000 cows from 1991. For 1993, the outlook calls for 

 a resumption of declining cow numbers. For all of 1993, cow numbers could average 

 9,745,000 in the U.S., which would be a reduction of just over 100,000 from 1992's 

 average. 



Production per cow 



Production per cow was up less than 2 percent over the previous year during most of 

 the first half of 1992, but then jumped to 4 to 5 percent over a year earlier during the 

 second half. During 1992, milk production per cow totalled 15,437 pounds in the 

 U.S., up 3.8 percent from 1991. For 1993, the outlook calls for a moderation in the 

 rate of increase in production per cow, to a rate of increase between 2 to 3 percent 

 over the previous year. For all of 1993, milk production per cow could total 15,870 

 pounds in the U.S., which would be an increase of 2.8 percent over 1992's level. 



