62 



do not stop there. Part of property income accoiing in Humboldt County, reported by Mr. 

 Stewart in his Rgure TVvo as 'Interest and Dividends* are attributable to the forest products 

 industry. For example, in 1985, rent, dividends and interest directly earned by the forest 

 products industry amounted to $63,845,000 wtitch constituted nmre than twenty-five percent 

 of the total of $253,006,000 for that year. It is also the case that a part of the remainder is 

 indirectly attributable to the industry, as is a part of personal Income coming from social 

 security payments to timber industry retirees. 



i have not had time to review (indeed I have not seen) Mr. Stewart's Ph. D. 

 dissertation from which he has apparently drawn his figures on the relationships between 

 timber harvest and employment for the county, and t do not therefore wish to quibble o)/er 

 his figures. IHowever, it would appear that he did not make a couple of adjustments needed 

 if they are going to be applied to the problem of estimating the impacts of curtailed timber 

 harvest specifically in Humboldt County. Rrst, head-count employment data from the 

 Callfomia Employment Development Department must be adjusted to full^ime-equivalent 

 workers', and second, the net flows of logs across county boundaries must be accounted for 

 In the regression model estimating equations. These factors could help to account for his 

 reported differences in lattor productivity between the north coast and the central Sierra 

 region. 



Mr. Stewart is also correct to note that some of the employment and population 

 losses predicted by various models did not materialize. But he misinterprets the very nature 

 of the application of various income and employment multipllefB. These multipliers are 

 derived by applying the phndple of ceteris paribus (holding other things equal) to the 

 e^imating equations by taking their partial derivatives. In other words, had it not been for 

 the influx of refugees from southem and central California and in-migration of others driven 

 by transfer payments, larger Impacts would have been experienced. I personally have never 

 used emptoyment multipliers as large as 2.5. But beyond that, part of the offsetting influx of 



5 



