155 



Figure Four 



Person- Years to Process One Million Board 

 Feet per year for a Decade 



9.5 



8 



Without Technological Change 



95 



With Technological Change 



61 



1 



4 5 6 7 8 9 10 



Sources: Initial and eventual labor requironents for technological change model - econometric 

 analysis of county level harvest and employment data. Stewart ( 1993). Labor requirements of 

 no technolc^cal change model - 1990 IMPLAN analysis for NOTtfaem Spotted Owl and 

 industry estimates for old growth processing in California. The model for for estimating the 

 rate of technologicai innovadon by c omparin g average productivity to die productivtity of the 

 bestonequarteroftheindustry was first introduced by William Miemyk in 1965 in An 

 Introduction to Input-Output Analvsia. 



Indirect jobs 



Nearly aO enq)loyment analysis estimate that nxne indirect jobs will be lost thant direct 

 timber jobs if timber harvests drop in the western United States. The expansion of Redwood 

 Nati(Mtal Park in the late 1970s provides an excellent cqiportunity to compare the projection 

 with the actual pattem in the same general r^on that we are discussing today. When we go 



Headwaters Forest Act Testimony, William Stewart, October 13,1993 



