158 



Income Multipliers for Major Timber Producing Counties in California 1972-19 89 



Source: Predictme Employment Impacts of Changing Forest Management m CaUfomia. 1993. 

 William Stewart PhD, University of CaUfomia at Berkeley. The results were developed from 

 an economic base model using local income from the Local Area Personal Income publications 

 of the Department of Commerce. 



The moral is that a dollar is a dollar in tenns of the multiplier effect in these forested 

 counties. When the relatively higher wage of timber jobs is taken into account, the loss or gain 

 of one timber job is associated with the loss or gain of 1.85 local jobs. The combination of 

 underestimating the impact of technological change and overestimating the employment 

 multiplier leads to a total job loss estimate that may be mcne than that twice that which an 

 examination of the economic record leads me to anticipate. This overestimation does not tal^ 

 into account the distinct possibility that the old growth jobs could suddenly come to a halt if the 

 inventories lan out within the next decade or two. 



Employment in the new forest economies 



The economies of Humboldt and other forest counties in California have undergone 

 enormous changes. Laiige changes in timber investment reduce the leverage of increased 

 commodity production for producing jobs. Job growth in California's timber industry is 

 occurring in the remanufacturing sector rather than the sawmilling sector. Interestingly, it is 

 the Central Sierra region which illustrates the potential for job creation based on developing 



Headwaters Forest Act Testimony, William Stewart, October 13,1993 



11 



