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NAFTA. There are some marginal winners, and there are very few 

 U.S. agriculture commodities that will lose under this deal. 



If NAFTA is defeated, there will be winners as well, but the win- 

 ners will be the European Community, the countries of the Pacific 

 Rim who recognized years ago the advantages of having and the 

 necessity to have a special trading relationship with those coun- 

 tries nearest to their borders. They are aggressively creating new 

 preferential markets for their goods while we choose to rely upon 

 old markets for ours. 



Those who oppose the Uruguay Round will consider themselves 

 winners as well if NAFTA is defeated. Let me assure you, our 

 GATT negotiating position will be strengthened by the implementa- 

 tion of NAFTA. 



So, again, we believe that American farmers and ranchers have 

 much to gain from NAFTA. It will create new long-term growth op- 

 portunities for agriculture within our own hemisphere. In fact, we 

 believe that U.S. agricultural exports will be between $2 billion to 

 $2.5 billion higher annually when NAFTA is fully implemented 

 than without the NAFTA. U.S. grains and meats would account for 

 more than half of the expanded trade value, although many U.S. 

 products would benefit. We also see new opportunities in the area 

 of biotechnology trade, agricultural investment, and the transpor- 

 tation of farm and food products. 



The increased import demand from Mexico will have a positive 

 impact on U.S. prices and cash receipts, boosting U.S. farm cash 

 receipts up a projected 2 to 3 percent. And this means a lot to the 

 American farmer. It means farm income, and increased farm in- 

 come means jobs and more job security and increased investment 

 in the rural economy. We believe 56,000 additional jobs on the farm 

 and in the food industries will be created because of the NAFTA. 

 And so these are gains, we think, that are not to be diminished and 

 will certainly benefit all of rural America. 



We expect many of our exports to Mexico to increase imme- 

 diately, but even more gains will be realized over time as the Mexi- 

 can standard of living grows and as the Mexican market grows 

 even further. Without the NAFTA, we do not expect our exports to 

 Mexico to grow nearly as much, although I believe they would 

 grow. Those 56,000 agricultural jobs will never have the chance to 

 be created, but what is perhaps more important, without the 

 NAFTA there is nothing to prevent Mexico from once again closing 

 its borders by erecting new and onerous barriers to imports. And 

 this could easily result in the loss of a major market for American 

 goods, and this would put in jeopardy those 700,000 U.S. jobs that 

 now exist because of our exports to Mexico. 



Mr. Chairman, we have Ambassador Mickey Kantor here, and he 

 will talk more about other provisions, including agriculture, but 

 just let me mention a few things that NAFTA doesn't do, if you 

 will, and then let me spend the concluding moments here discuss- 

 ing a couple of questions that you generously asked of me before 

 I arrived here. 



NAFTA does not do these things: NAFTA does not affect U.S. 

 quotas imposed under Section 22 of the Agricultural Adjustment 

 Act of 1933 for any country except Mexico, nor does it affect U.S. 

 tariffs or other import protections for non-NAFTA countries. 



