57 



The big Chinese concern is that if we can't get some of the — they 

 don't have the resources to collect and put in their own germ bank 

 and they are worried about some of those accessions being lost for- 

 ever unless we have the resources to collect and put them in the 

 U.S. collection and the Chinese collection collaboratively. 



The problem is, they don't have the resources and they are reluc- 

 tant to give up their national treasure of soybeans because of the 

 intellectual property rights issue. They want to be assured of the 

 opportunity for intellectual protection or property protection of the 

 germplasm collection. 



Senator Kerrey. Perhaps the number one question in dealing 

 with this piece of legislation and the ratification of the treaty is 

 the economic urgency to do so, and that is why I was asking the 

 questions: what is the total world market; what is the U.S. share; 

 what is the trend; and what is at stake. 



Mr. Schmidt, there is an OTA report from 1989 that I assume 

 you have some knowledge of that stated that the impact of the 

 1970 PVPA was unclear, that the direct stimulation of private in- 

 vestment was approximately that of the preceding 10 years, and 

 that increases in private development of varieties have been limit- 

 ed to a few major crops, that being soybeans and wheat. 



The original intent of PVPA was to make more varieties avail- 

 able, and I am trying to ascertain whether or not that was the case 

 and what the economic urgency is in ratification of this treaty. 



Mr. Schmidt. It is certainly clear — Rob, did you want to respond? 



Mr. Robinson. I think there is one case in point, and that is the 

 case of Hard Red Winter wheat, that may be the greatest example. 



In the Great Plains, private Hard Red Winter wheat breeding in 

 the last 10 years has dwindled drastically, part of it being Pioneer 

 leaving Hard Red Winter breeding in the United States, but also a 

 number of other private programs have disappeared as well. I be- 

 lieve the numbers have dwindled in the last 10 years from some- 

 thing like 25 programs down to 4 or 5 programs left in private 

 breeding of Hard Red Winter wheat. 



So I think the economic urgency is not only on the part of the 

 seed companies, but I think it is on the part of those people who 

 benefit from those varieties that are produced. Once a breeding 

 program is discontinued, it is at least 10 years until a new program 

 is viable and producing new varieties. So once we lose these pro- 

 grams, to start them again takes a long period of time. I just don't 

 think we can afford to continue to see these programs disappear, 

 either for the seed industry or the agriculture at large. 



We have similar examples in cotton, and maybe somewhat less 

 in soybeans. Cotton and wheat, in particular, seem to be the hard- 

 est hit. 



Senator Kerrey. Dr. Watson. 



Dr. Watson. Mr. Chairman, if I could comment on the economic 

 impact based strictly on certification, the 25-percent decrease in 

 acres certified that we have seen in the last 12 years amounts to a 

 million acres in the 42 member states that we have. Based on our 

 best economic estimates, if we use a low-value crop, this is a loss to 

 our certified seed growers of $200 million a year. If we use the 

 higher- value crop, it approaches $1 billion a year. So it is very sig- 



