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council, such as Pereyra, also work for fishing companies, and some conservationists 

 said that's a conflict of interest that compromises the council's judgment. 



In the 1980s, political pressures were blamed for the overfishing of many of the 

 North Atlantic region's lucrative fishing stocks, such as cod and haddock. 



A recent decline in Alaskan pollock may be an early warning sign that the Pacific 

 is heading toward the same fate, conservationists said. Throughout the 1980s, the 

 stock in the eastern Bering Sea enjoyed strong growth, reaching a record 15.8 mil- 

 lion tons in 1985. This year, that same stock is projected to drop to 5.9 million tons, 

 its lowest level since 1966. 



Despite the decline, the scientists who advise the council said the stock is in good 

 shape and has not been overfished. Fluctuations of this type are normal, and there 

 are several strong year-classes of young fish in the pipeline, said Bill Aron, science 

 director of the government's Alaska Fisheries Science Center. "I don't think anyone 

 here sees this in any alarming way," he said. 



But conservation groups point to a precipitous decline in some animals that rely 

 on pollock for food — including Steller sea lions, harbor seals and some sea birds — 

 as evidence that something is amiss. 



The Steller sea lion in Alaska was considered "threatened" under the Endangered 

 Species Act in 1990. Its population has dropped more than 60 percent in the last 

 five years. 



Greenpeace filed a lawsuit to slow pollock fishing in the Gulf of Alaska to give 

 scientists time to study the effects of the harvest on birds and sea mammals. They 

 lost the suit, but continue to lobby for lower pollock quotas. "They really don't have 

 a good handle on how much pollock is needed to maintain the ecosystem," said 

 Penny Pagels, Northwest fisheries campaigner for Greenpeace. 



Concerns over marine mammal populations have led to closures of small areas of 

 the fishery around sea lion rookeries. Lee Alverson, president of Natural Resources 

 Consultants, a Seattle-based firm that advises the industry, said there is "almost 

 a 100 percent chance" that more restrictions will follow, a move that would further 

 erode the economic condition of the fleet. 



While the council has kept fishing quotas well within guidelines set by govern- 

 ment scientists, Pereyra said the fleet is unmanageable at its current size. "When 

 you have a lot of people out of work, there's always pressure to push the upper end 

 of the envelope," he said. "I don't think that's healthy." 



To reduce the fleet to a more manageable level, the council had come up with a 

 proposal to privatize the pollock stock. Under this plan, boats that have already 

 been fishing for pollock would be awarded Individual Transferable Quotas, or 

 ITQs — shares of the catch that would permit them to fish at any time and sell or 

 trade the shares. Stronger players would buy up the ITQs, leading to an orderly 

 consolidation of the fleet. Systems similar to the one proposed for the pollock fleet 

 are already in place or planned for other troubled fisheries. 



"A market-driven system like an ITQ will allow some of those who were honest 

 participants in the fishery some options," Blum said. "Right now all they can do is 

 wait for the bank to come and put a sticker on them." 



While there is no significant opposition to the council's ITQ plan, some boat own- 

 ers are so disgusted with the way the fishery has been managed that they are lobby- 

 ing Congress to replace the council altogether. Congress has an opportunity to take 

 another look at the state of the fleet when the Magnuson Act comes up for reauthor- 

 ization this year. 



If the council goes ahead with the ITQ plan, its provisions won't go into effect be- 

 fore 1996. Pereyra and other industry observers said that may be too late for many 

 troubled boats. "I think we will have a major shakeout by then, probably within the 

 next year," Pereyra said. "The whole thing could melt down." 



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