627 



Mr. Bliley. This graph shows that nicotine levels are a function 

 of tar levels in tobacco. When tar levels are set, nicotine levels fol- 

 low. And as the manufacturers have reduced their tar levels over 

 the years, nicotine levels have correspondingly fallen. 



Now, the second chart, which is taken from Dr. Kessler's testi- 

 mony shows the opposite. His chart shows that as tar levels have 

 fallen, nicotine has actually risen. I understand that your company 

 has run a further analysis of this data. Could you please explain 

 the differences in these graphs? 



Mr. James Johnston. Yes, Congressman, I can. First, going back 

 to the Surgeon General's data, which were presented at the pre- 

 vious hearing, we went back — ^the Surgeon General's data, David, 

 please? 



Just to make sure that those data were correct, we went back 

 and selectively recalculated data. Our data were exactly in line 

 with the Surgeon General's data which show a steady and quite re- 

 markable decline in tar and nicotine deliveries. Certainly not an in- 

 dication of increasing nicotine or addiction, or any of that sort of 

 thing, with a 65 percent reduction in nicotine, a 67 percent reduc- 

 tion in tar, based on what people are actually smoking in the Unit- 

 ed States. 



The FDA chart was quite startling and amazing to us, and so we 

 set about immediately to try to reconstruct those data. We con- 

 tacted the FDA and asked them to share their data with us. We 

 believe the FDA calculations are incorrect. They used several sim.- 

 plifying assumptions, and took just the three basic categories, 

 made three multiplications, full flavor times average tar and nico- 

 tine, low tar, and ultra low tar. 



We went back and calculated for that 10 year period every single 

 one of the 500 brand styles times their exact tar and nicotine num- 

 ber, times their exact sales in the marketplace. So, if you'll show 

 chart three? This is precisely what Americans smoked on average 

 for that 10 year period. And what you see, and what we expected 

 to see, and what we have nov/ confirmed, is that both tar and nico- 

 tine levels did decline during that period. 



You do get changes year to year because we are dealing with an 

 agricultural crop, based on sunlight, and rain, and wind, and all 

 those sorts of things. Nicotine naturally varies year to year, so you 

 get little changes. I want to be very clear Congressman. I am not 

 accusing Dr. Kessler of manipulating data. I know how it is to be 

 falsely accused. We have contacted the FDA. We are providing 

 them with our calculations, and we have offered to be any help we 

 can. 



But it was Dr. Kessler's chart that was picked up by every news- 

 paper in this country, and on television, as the proof that we were 

 manipulating nicotine, and it was wrong. 



Mr. Bliley. When you say, Mr. Johnston, that sunlight, moisture 

 vary the amount of nicotine in a stalk of tobacco, what kind of vari- 

 ance do you get from, say, a very dry summer, a hot summer, to 

 a relatively cool summer, and a wet summer? 



Mr. James Johnston. Mr. Congressman. You have just gone be- 

 yond my technical ability to answer that question. Mr. Schindler? 



Mr. Schindler. I don't know the exact numbers, but my under- 

 standing is that the ratio of nicotine to weight in the leaf varies 



