. K'- :■.■•■ 



THE I. A. A. RECORD 



Page Three 



Government Crop 



Forecasts Upheld 



(Continued from page 1) 

 Eye of Farmer 



The issuing of crop outlook 

 reports or crop forecasts as 

 they are commonly called was 

 the first effort of the Depart- 

 ment of Agriculture to serve as 

 the eye of the farmer. With- 

 out these reports farmers would 

 have to market their crops with- 

 out any knowledge of whether 

 or not the crops in other 

 places are large or small. The 

 buyers of farm products have 

 their own private agencies se- 

 curing information for them. 

 Hence the government crop 

 reporting service is essential if 

 the farmer is not to plod along 

 in the dark while the middle- 

 men to whom farmers sell 

 their products know what is 

 happening in the world. 



Tryinjf To Kill Service ^ 



Many organized groups like 

 the great cotton exchanges and grain may more successfully be used as 



May E. Youngberg and Inez Nelson, office secretaries 

 of the Winnebago and DeKalb County Farm Bureau, 

 respectively, tied for first place for securing the greatest 

 number of applications during Automobile Insurance 

 Week. 



exchanges have done what they could 

 from time to time to discourage gov- 

 ernment crop reports. The speculative 

 market is truly disturbed by full in- 

 formation. Future trading is reduced 

 by reliable crop reports issued at fre- 

 quent intervals. This is because fu- 

 ture trading is in part for hedging, 

 that is insuring against loss due to 

 changes in prices. Anything that re- 

 duces uncertainty reduces the need for 

 this insurance. This, of course, is a loss 

 to the^peculative market operators but 

 it is a gain for all others. The producers 

 and the users of farm products bene- 

 fit by full information and are usually 

 found backing the crop reporting serv- 

 ice of the Department. When the is- 

 suing of crop reports come at the 

 same time as falling prices, farmers 

 have been known to protest against 

 the reports. Organized groups of 

 merchants are believed to have subsi- 

 dized "stool pigeon" farm leaders to 

 protest against crop reports at times 



material for the speculative game. 

 Has Gone Further 



In recent years the Department of 

 Agriculture has gone much further 

 than simply to report on crop condi- 

 tions in this country. It has collected 

 and published facts about crop condi- 

 tions in all parts of the world where 

 foreign^ farmers are competing with 

 American farmers. All this is an es- 

 sential part of the picture the farmer 

 must hold in mind if he is to produce 

 and market crops intelligently. 



Another important improvement in 

 the information service provided by 

 the Department of Agriculture was 

 initiated by Secretary Henry C. Wal- 

 lace soon after he went to Washing- 

 ton. I refer to the Livestock Outlook 

 Reports, and particularly to the Pig 

 Survey made each spring which gives 

 accurate information to farmers about 

 the first of July regarding the number 

 of spring pigs which are available for 



to weather conditions has more 

 to do than acreage in control- 

 ling the supply of farm prod- 

 ucts. The outlook reports give 

 the fact so the farmers may act 

 more intelligently. 



I cannot in the brief time 

 available give any more details 

 regarding this economic serv- 

 ice, this "eye of the farmer" 

 operated by the Department of 

 Agriculture; but I want to em- 

 phasize the fact that the Depart- 

 ment of Agriculture has gone 

 far towards developing methods 

 of collecting and distributing in- 

 formation which will enable the 

 farmer to have a much clearer 

 mental vision of the economic 

 facts and forces which deter- 

 mine his profits than has ever 

 been true before. Unfortu- 

 nately, there are those who 

 would destroy this information 

 service because they would 

 then be in a position to 

 profit by keeping the farmers 

 ignoraht. 



Out To Make Money 



Do not misunderstand me about 

 these speculators in farm products. 

 They have no desire to hurt farmers, 

 they would rather see them prosperous 

 than depressed, but the interest of 

 these dealers centers in their own 

 profits. They see and discuss crop and 

 market reports from their own point 

 of view. Their point of view is not 

 the general welfare nor the profits of 

 the farmer. What is needed is that 

 farmers seek their own interest with 

 the same intelligence as do these busi- 

 ness men. The purpose of the govern- 

 ment information service is to help 

 farmers understand the production 

 and marketing situations so that they 

 can pursue their own interest in the 

 light of equally good information. 



Should Help Service 



Unfortunately farmers sometimes 

 join with the speculators in complain- 

 ing about this service. If farmers and 



when big crops are leading to falling feeding and which will be in the mar- farm organizations can do anything 



prices. Wise farmers are not fooled 

 by this type of propaganda. They 

 know the dealers have the informa- 

 tion and that prices will fall when 

 supplies are large whether the farm- 

 ers have the facts or not. 



Farmer* Use Facts 



Intelligent farmers use the facts 

 and plan to hold their products. Fur- 

 thermore, thoughtful farmers know 



ket during the following fall and win- 

 ter. At the same time information is 

 secured regarding intentions to breed 

 for fall litters. This information is 

 given early enough so that farmers 

 may change their plans either to in- 

 crease or decrease the number of lit- 

 ters, according to whether there is an 

 under-supply or an over-supply of 

 spring pigs. Again in December a 

 similar report is isued to gruide farm- 



that the government can not issue a ers in planning their spring pig crop 



part of the facts and hold back other These reports give the farmers a 



facts. It must tell all of the truth, chance to act intelligently in produc- 



If short crops leading to high prices 

 are to be reported then long crops 

 must be reported also. ^ The full truth 

 puts the farmer on an even basis with 

 the man to whom he sells. A dealer 

 in farm products once said to me, "I 

 don't like this information service of 

 the Department of Agriculture. The 



ing an orderly supply of hogs for the 

 market. 



February Report 

 The next great step forward in im- 

 proving the "eye of the farmer" was 

 the February report on intentions to 

 plant and the general outlook with 



to help improve the information serv- 

 ice of the Department of Agriculture 

 they should not hesitate to give their 

 suggestions and helpful criticisms di- 

 rectly to the officials of the Depart- 

 ment. The United States government 

 crop and livestock estimates are the 

 best in the world. They could be im- 

 proved if more funds were available 

 but they are now superior to any lUce 

 reports in this or other lands. The 

 crop estimates are not always under- 

 stood by their critics. The crop re- 

 ports give the conditions as of a 

 given date and indicate that on the 

 basis of average results in the past 

 following such conditions a given crop 

 is indicated. Every report states spe- 

 cifically that the outcome of the crop 

 for the season will be more or less 

 than the figrure indicated depending 

 on the weather and- other conditions 



respect to the probable demand for 



trouble is everybody has the informa- agricultural products. This spring out- during the time yet to intervene be 



tion. It is the information I have look report gives farmers information ^ore the crop is harvested. The closer 



which the other fellow does not have needed in deciding what and how much to the harvest the reports are the less 



that is worth money to Aie." The agi- to plant. This has done much to keep the chance for change in the crop out- 



tation against crop reports originates farmers from planting too much in look and the more dependable the esti- 



in the great exchanges where farm one year and then too little the next, mates. Much of the wheat and much 



products are bought and sold. Its In the past, increased prices led to of the cotton is marketed long before 



purpose is to destroy the clear vision increased planting and low prices to the last of the crop is harvested. With- 



of the "eye of the farmer" in reduced planting. This was often out estimates many a farmer would be 



order that the products of the farm wrong because variation in yield due (Continued on page 7) 



