Faniiing in 1938 



y^NDUSTRIAL income, the nation- 



iJI al income and fann income prob- 

 \^ ably will be lower in 1938 than 

 during the present year. The current 

 business recession may run well into 1938 

 although "relatiyely short recessions us- 

 ually characterize a general upswing in 

 business." 



Tliis, briefly, is the prediction of gov- 

 ernment economists and statisticians who 

 each year attempt to size up the situa- 

 tion and help farmers plan their business 

 in the year ahead. 



Some of the things farmers buy will be 

 priced higher next year, but others such 

 as cotton goods, rayon, and some foods 

 will be cheaper, so that total living costs, 

 are not expected to change much unless 

 thf re is a marked change in the general 

 , price level. 



Corn is now and will be considerably 

 cheaper during the next year than in 

 the past year. Feed supplies are more 

 plentiful and the livestock- feed price 

 ratios are expected to be favorable to 

 producers in livestock. They may remain 

 favorable for two to three years if feed 

 production continues near average. 



For those who sell a large part of 

 their grain or buy most of their livestock 

 the outlook is not as favorable as dur- 

 ing the past several years. 



25% Fewer Hogs 



With the number of hogs on farms 

 probably as much as 25 per cent below 

 average, and the number of grain con- 

 suming animal units 10 p>er cent below, 

 the supply of corn per hog and per 

 grain-consuming animal is above average. 

 It is expected "to result in a large 

 carry-over of corn at the end of the 1937- 

 38 marketing year." 



It will probably be 1940 before hog 

 production increases sufficiently to bring 

 total livestock up to the 1925-29 relation- 

 ship to- feed grain production, assuming 

 that feed production continues near 

 average. A sharp increase in hog num- 

 bers is looked for next year, also a re- 

 stocking of depleted cattle herds if 

 pastures are good in 1938. 



Meat Supplies Larger 

 Meat supplies will be larger in 1938 

 than in 1937 but still below average. 

 The increase will occur during the latter 

 part of next year and will be largely in 

 pork and better grades of beef. Although 

 the trend in livestock numbers will be 

 upward for several years such production 

 will not reach the level of 1925-29 

 until 1940-41. 



Consumer demand for meats in 1938 

 is expected to be weaker than in 1937. 



This will result in a lower level of meat 

 and livestock prices. 



Total slaughter of both cattle and 

 calves in '38 is expected to be smaller 

 than in '37 largely because depleted 

 ranges will be restocking with cows and 

 heifers. The number of well-finished 

 cattle will be much larger next year. 

 Most of them will be marketed from May 

 to October. Average weights of cattle 

 slaughtered will be considerably heavier 

 to oflFset in part the smaller number 

 sent to the block. Prices of cows and low 

 grade steers during the first half of '38 

 probably will advance seasonally and 

 average higher than during the first half 

 of '37. In the second half they are 



mediate future according to the Bureau 

 of Agricultural Economics. 



Better Times for Poultry 

 Poultry and egg producers have had 

 hard sledding during the past year or 

 more. High feed and low poultry prices 

 have driven many an in-and-outer out of 

 the business. But better days are in store 

 say government forecasters. For one 

 thing feed is cheaper. By early 1938 the 

 feed-egg price situation is expected to 

 be much more favorable than a year 

 earlier. A heavier spring hatch next 

 year, lighter poultry marketings from 

 July '37 to June '38, better prices for 

 broilers, a reduction in turkey numbers 

 with better prices this winter than last. 



Here Is The Way The Farm, Dairy 

 and Livestock Situation Looics to 

 Federal Government Forecasters 



expected to average lower than in the 

 second half of this year. 



The present wide spread in cattle 

 prices will narrow considerably during 

 the next nine months. The low point 

 in the present cattle-number C)'cle is 

 expected to be reached early in 1938, 

 but the increase in cattle numbers is 

 expected to be smaller than during the 

 two preceding cycles. On Jan. 1, 1937, 

 cattle numbers in the U. S. were esti- 

 mated at 66,676,000 head. The decrease 

 this year is expected to be not more than 

 1 |)er cent which would make around 

 66,000,000 head Jan. 1, 1938. 



Sheep and Lambs 



The number of lambs fed this winter 

 probably will be larger than a year 

 earlier. Marketings between now and 

 next April will be heavier. The seasonal 

 advance in prices will probably be less 

 than last year. The demand for lamb 

 and wool will be somewhat less in "38, 

 therefore lower prices are expected. The 

 supply of feeder lambs this year is about 

 the same as last. 



Dairy Outlook Good 



Hats "off to the dairyman. He's com- 

 ing into his own. The outlook is much 

 better in the next four years than it was 

 in the last four or five. .Rising prices 

 for mijk cows, more abundant feed, 

 lower feed prices, more milk per cow, 

 and increased consumption of milk and 

 cream are all in the picture of the im- 



advancing chicken prices through the first 

 half of '38, a bigger turkey hatch next 

 spring, higher egg prices next year — 

 all these are indicated. 



Horses and Mules 



Horse and mule numbers continued 

 to decline during 1937 and the down- 

 ward trend is expected to continue until 

 1940 to 1942 when the number of colts 

 raised should be equal to disappearance 

 of old animals from farms. Prices of 

 work stock will continue on a fairly high 

 level for several years with possibly some 

 tendency to decline. The price of mules 

 will be maintained for a longer period 

 than the price of horses. 



The average price of horses and mules 

 on the farm last March was the highest 

 since 1920. On Sept. 15 this year horses 

 averaged $93 compared with $100 last 

 April. Mules averaged $121 April 15 

 compared with $113 on Sept. 15, 1937. 

 These prices are roughly about 75 per 

 cent of the horse and mules prices from 

 1909-14. 



Look Out Wheat Growers 

 Acreage seeded and to be seeded to 

 wheat for the 1938 crop is expected to 

 be about the same, 81 million acres, as 

 for 1937. With average yields and av- 

 erage abandonment, a crop of close to 

 one billion bushels (1,000,000,000 bu.) 

 is indicated. Of course the weather man 

 might change this picture as he has done 

 in the past. But with a crop of 887 

 million bushels this year, the outlook is 



DECEMBER. 1937 



