Fanning in 1938 



» 



y^NDUSTRIAL income, the nation- 



[Jl il income and farm income prob- 

 \^_J ably will be lower in 1938 than 

 during the present year. The current 

 business recession may run well into 1938 

 although "relatively short recessions us- 

 ually characterize a general upswing in 

 business." 



Tliis, briefly, is the preiliction of gov- 

 ernment economists and statisticians who 

 each year attempt to size up the situa- 

 tion and help farmers plan their business 

 in the year ahead. • 



Some of the things farmers buy will be 

 priced higher next year, but others such 

 as cotton goods, rayon, and some foods 

 will be cheaper, so that total living costs, 

 arc not expected to change much unless 

 there is a marked change in the general 

 price level. 



Corn is now and will be considcr.ibly 

 cheaper during the next year than in 

 the past year. Feed supplies are more 

 plentiful and the livestock- feed price 

 ratios are expected to be favorable to 

 ' producers in livestock. They may remain 

 favorable for two to three years if feed 

 production continues near average. 



For those who sell a large part of 

 their grain or buy most of their livestock 

 tlic outlook is not as favorable as dur- 

 ing the past several years. 



25'"r Fewer Hogs 



With the nimiber of hogs on fariiis 

 probably as much as 25 per cent below 

 average, and the number of grain con- 

 suming animal units 1 per cent Ixlow, 

 the supply of corn per hog and per 

 grain-consuming animal is above avera'^e. 

 It is expected "to residt in a large 

 carry-over of corn at the end of the !'j3"'- 

 38 marketing year." 



It will probably be l')i() before hog 

 production increases sufficiently to bring 

 total livestock up to the 1 925-29 rel.Uion- 

 ship to feed grain production, assuming 

 that feed production continues near 

 average. A sharp increase in hog num- 

 bers is looked for next year, also a re- 

 stocking of depicted cattle herds if 

 pastures are good in 1938. 



Meat Supplies Larger 

 Meat supplies will be larger in 1938 

 than in 1937 but. still below average. 

 The increase will occur during the latter 

 part of next year and will be largely in 

 pork and better grades of beef. Although 

 the trend in livestock numbers \vill be 

 upward for several years such production 

 will not reach the level of 1925-29 

 until 1940-41. 



Consumer demand for meats in 1938 

 is expected to be weaker .than in 1 937. 



This will result in a lower level of meat 

 and livestock prices. 



Total slaughter of both cattle and 

 calves in '38 is expected to be smaller 

 than in "37 largely because depicted 

 ranges will be restocking with cows and 

 heifers. The number of well-finished 

 cattle will be much larger next year 

 Most of them will be marketed from May 

 to October. Average weights of cattle 

 slaughtered will l^e considerably heavier 

 to ofl^set in part the smaller number 

 sent to the block. Prices of cows and low 

 grade steers during the first half of '38 

 probably will advance seasonally and 

 average higher than during the first half 

 of '37. In the second half tlicv are 



mediate future according to the Bureau 

 of Agricultural Economics. 



Better Times for Poultry 

 Poultry and egg producers have had 

 hard sledding during the past year or 

 more.- High feed and low poultry prices 

 have driven many an in-and-outer out of 

 the business. But better days are in store 

 say government forecasters. For one 

 thing feed is chcajx'r. By early I')3H the 

 fectl-cgg price situation is expedcd to 

 be much more favorable than a year 

 earlier. A heavier spring hatch next 

 year, lighter poultry marketings from 

 July '37 to June "38, better prices for 

 broilers, .i rt-iliction in turkey numlxrs 

 with belter rrucs this winter than last. 



Here Is The Way The Faimi, Dairy 

 and Livestock Situation Looics to 

 Federal Government Forecasters 



expected to aver.igc lower than in the 

 second half of this year. 



Tlie present wide spread in cattle 

 prices will narrow considerably during 

 the next nine months. ITie low point 

 in the present cattle-number cycle is 

 expected to be reached early in l^)iS. 

 but the increase in cattle numbers is 

 expected to be smaller than during tb.e 

 two preceding cytlcs. On Jan. 1, 193". 

 cattle numbers in the U. S. were esti- 

 mated at 66.676,000 head. The derease 

 this year is expected to be not more than 

 1 per cent which would make aro.mJ 

 66.000,000 head Ian. 1. IMiS, 



Sheep and Lambs 



The number of iambs iijA this winter 

 probably will be larger than a \ear 

 earlier. Marketings between now and 

 next April will be heavier. The seasonal 

 advance in prices will probably be less 

 than last year. The ilemand for lamb 

 and wool will be somewhat less in '^S, 

 therefore lower prices are expected. The 

 supply of feeder lambs this vear is about 

 the same as last. 



Dairy Outlook Good 

 Hats off to the dairyman. He's lom- 

 ing into his own. The outlook is much 

 better in the next four years than it was 

 in the last four or five Rising prices 

 lor milk cows, more abundant feel, 

 lower feed prices, more milk per cow, 

 and increaseii consumption of milk and 

 cream are all in the picture of the im- 



advancing chicken prices through the first 

 half of '38, a bigger turkey hatch next 

 spring, higher egg prices next year - - 

 all these are indicated. 



Horses and Mules 



Horse and mule numbc-^s continued 

 to dctline during 1937 and the down- 

 ward trend is expected to continue until 

 19i0 to I'M 2 when the ncimber of colts 

 raisccd should he c<|ual to disappearance 

 ot old animals from tarms. Price-s of 

 work stock will continue on a fairly high 

 level lor several years with possiblv some 

 tendency to decline. The price of mules 

 .will l-)c maintained for a longer period 

 than the price of horses. 



'Ihc average price of horses mi^ mules 

 on the farm last .March was the highest 

 since 1920. On Sept 15 this year horses 

 a\er.iged S93 compared with SI 00 last ' 

 April. Mules averaged Si 21 April 15 

 compareil with Si 13 on Se]H. 15. I9s7. 

 These prices are roughly .about "5 per 

 cent of the horse and mules prices from 

 I'JO'Ml. 



Look Out \\ heat Ci rowers 

 Acrcige .seeded and to be seeded to - 

 wheat for the 19i8 crop is expected to 

 Ix- about the same. M million acres, as 

 for 1937. With average vields and av- 

 erage abandonment, a crop of close to 

 one billion bushels (1.000,000,000 bu.) 

 is indicated. Of course the vveather marf 

 might change this picture as he h.is done 

 in tl>e past. But with a crop of 88"* 

 million bushels this vear. the outlook is 



DECEMBER, 1937 



15 



