The Choice Before 



Corn Belt Farmers 



By Claude R. Wickard 



Director. North Central Diyiuon 

 Agricultural Adjustment Administration 



BULGING CORN CRIBS IN ILLINOIS 

 Evidence oi the tremendous carryover oi com this year 

 are these temporary cribs along the paved road in Stark 

 county. ■. ; . 



MS FARMERS in the middle 

 J lL west plant corn during the 

 ^^^^ I next few weeks, they will 

 be making a choice between a corn acre- 

 age that will help to assure balanced 

 supplies and incomes in grain and live- 

 stock farming and a corn acreage that 

 may bring price-depressing surpluses and 

 necessitate marketing quotas to protect 

 farm incomes. 



Every corn producer in the commercial 

 corn area will have a corn acreage allot- 

 ment. In many counties farmers have 

 already received their corn and total soil- 

 depleting acreage allotments. Every corn 

 farmer who plants more than his allot- 

 ment will be increasing the Q)rn Belt's 

 chances for marketing quotas. Each one 

 who holds his corn acreage within his 

 allotment will be diminishing the area's 

 chances for marketing quotas. 

 Marketing Quotas.' 



In this manner every com producer in 

 the commercial corn area is making a 

 choice between a probable supply above 

 the marketing quota level or a probable 

 supply below that level when he plants 

 his corn. A supply above the marketing 

 quota level next fall would result in a 

 referendum in the Corn Belt, and with 

 a two-to-one favorable vote marketing 

 quotas would go into effect on October 

 1. Farmers in the commercial area would 

 have definite amounts of their crop to 

 store with a 15 cents per bushel penalty 

 for failure to store these amounts. 



The Corn Belt could hardly be forced 

 into marketing quotas except by its own 

 excess corn acreage. If farmers generally 

 do not exceed their acreage allotments, 

 there will be no occasion for them to use 

 marketing quotas unless yields are ex- 

 ceptionally high. Marketing quotas can 

 be applied only when supplies are ex- 

 cessive, and then only by a two-thirds 

 vote of producers in the corn belt. 



Before Corn Belt farmers knew what 

 the 1938 com acreage allotments would 

 be, they had indicated intentions to plant 

 a corn acreage considerably larger than 

 the allotments later established, accord- 



ing to the March 1 report of the Bureau 

 of Agricultural Economics. 'With aver- 

 age yields the acreage indicated by this 

 report would bring a supply next fall 

 above the marketing quota level. The 

 crop on this acreage with only slightly 

 above average yields would reach nearly 

 2,500,000,000 bushels. 'With an antici- 

 pated carryover of 250,000,000 bushels 

 to 360,000,000 bushels from the 1937 

 crop, the total supply would then exceed 

 the marketing quota level of approxi- 

 mately 2,800,000,000 bushels. 



Little probability is in sight for excess 

 com production outside the Corn Belt, 

 according to the report on intentions to 

 plant. The report indicates that corn 

 acreage outside the commercial com area 

 will be somewhat below normal. But 

 farmers in Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, 

 Indiana, and Ohio indicated in the re- 

 port that they intended to plant con- 

 siderably above the acreage contained in 

 the allotments which at the present time 

 are being mailed to farmers by county 

 committees. With average yields their 

 indicated plantings would bring 188,- 

 000,000 bushels more than the acreage 

 provided in the corn allotments. This 

 would make the difference between a 

 total supply next fall in excess of the 

 marketing quota level and a supply well 

 below the quota level. 



Corn In South 



Middle western farmers need have lit- 

 tle fear of increased competition from 

 the South if they familiarize themselves 

 with facts. Compare the average yield 

 of 15.3 bushels per acre of corn in the 

 South with the average for the com- 

 mercial corn area of 31.8 bushels per 

 acre. Note the statistics of the past five 

 years — while the South has shifted 

 away from cotton, corn production in the 

 South has not increased. Intentions 

 report on corn plantings this year show 

 the Souths acreage this year will be 

 about the same as in past years. 



Other factors are important on this 

 point too. Whenever the South shifts 

 an acre of cropland out of cotton produc- 



tion, it is not competing more, but is 

 actually competing less with Corn Belt 

 farmers. Even if the cotton acreage were 

 put into corn, which it is not, that would 

 diminish competition from the South. 

 The reason is this: an acre of cotton 

 yields more cottonseed oil in competition 

 with lard from the Corn Belt than an 

 acre of com in the South yields in the 

 form of fats and oils. Furthermore, 

 middle western farmers should consider 

 the inability of the South to store its 

 corn for livestock feed for more than a 

 few months because of weevil. 



The corn marketing quota provisions 

 of the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 

 1938 are available primarily to alleviate 

 the emergency conditions of price-de- 

 pressing com surpluses. Such surpluses 

 can result from two main sources: excess 

 com acreage and exceptionally high 

 yields. High yields can result in storage 

 quotas for farmers, but the quotas and 

 loans in the new Farm Act can make 

 high yields advantageous to farmers and 

 the entire Nation. 



To Prevent Surplus 



Price-depressing corn surpluses created 

 by normal yields upon an excessive acre- 

 age are a different matter. The 1938 

 AAA Farm Program aims to prevent the 

 accumulation of surpluses from excess 

 acreage. With average yields and gen- 

 eral participation by farmers the corn al- 

 lotments established under the program 

 will give a supply large enough for live- 

 stock feed, for exports, and for reserves 

 twice the average size. Under these con- 

 ditions, however, the supply would not 

 exceed the marketing quota level and no 

 quotas would be possible under present 

 legislation. Ordinarily a supply below 

 the marketing quota level would mean 

 reasonably gooci prices to farmers for 

 com, hogs, and cattle. 



There are admitted advantages of large 

 corn yields, particularly with corn loans 

 and marketing quotas available to help 

 prevent them from causing a failure of 

 farm income. Only through high com 



.• v ,' (Continued on page 11) 



L A. A. RECORD 



