The Farm Business 



Outlook 



Prices Expected To Remain Stable In 1939^ Surpiuseg 



in Corn, Wlieat, Cotton and Dairy Products 



^/^^ARM prices are ejcpected to re- 

 ^*'"3:^^ main stable during most of 



\J 1939, according to the Bureau 

 of Agricultural Economics. Despite 

 tenseness in the European political situa- 

 tion and lower stock prices, there is little 

 cause for alarm in the general business 

 situation. 



Contracts for residential construction 

 were the largest in value of any month 

 since October 1929. While auto sales 

 in March were disappointing, they picked 

 up some during the last week of the 

 month. There will be little increased 

 activity in the steel industry since most 

 auto makers have several months" supply 

 on hand. 



The stock market reflects disappoint- 

 ment of over-optimistic businessmen 

 who seem to have expected a sharp up- 

 turn in business activity in 1939. Most 

 consumer buying is expected to remain 

 on a hand-to-mouth basis which is ex- 

 pected to curtail purchases of durable 

 goods such as autos and houses. 



Corn: With larger participation in 

 the 1939 AAA program in prospect, the 

 corn loan program will have a greater in- 

 fluence in supporting corn prices than 

 last year. Two major factors in the 

 corn price situation are: 1) Crop condi- 

 tions during the next few months. 2) 

 The p>ossibility that farmers will vote 

 marketing quotas which will make loans 

 available on 1939 corn. 



Total stocks of corn on April 1 were 

 134 million bushels greater than on the 

 same date a year ago. While more corn 

 will be fed during the summer than last 

 summer, exports are expected to range 

 smaller. It is likely that the carryover of 

 com at the beginning of the 1939-40 

 marketing season will exceed 400 million 

 bushels, and will be the largest in 15 

 years. 



Hogs: A favorable corn-hog ratio 

 during the last 18 months has led to an 

 increase in hog numbers. Pig crop in- 

 creased 15 per cent in 1938 over that of 

 1937. Prospects are for a larger in- 

 crease in 1939. Prices for the next few 

 months depend partly on the number of 

 sows kept for fall farrow and partly on 

 the number of spring pigs that will 

 reach market age and finish by August. 

 Early reports indicate a heavy loss in 

 spring pigs but it's still a guess as to the 



12 



percentage of reduction that will finally 

 result from this cause. 



Some observers believe that the losses 

 will more than offset the anticipated 

 boost in hog numbers that was earlier 

 expected to result from a 23 per cent 

 increase in number of sows bred for 

 spring farrow. 



Beef Cattle: Slaughter of cattle and 

 calves is expected to remain below that 

 of a year ago during most of 1939. 

 Coupled with a stronger consumer de- 

 mand, plus increasing of herds by with- 

 holding cows and heifers from slaughter, 

 this will tend to result in strong prices 

 for cattle during most of the year. With 

 an increase of 1 3 per cent in numbers of 

 cattle on feed, it appears that the supply 

 of grain-feds will be adequate to fill 

 demand. 



Lambs: With the spring crop averag- 

 ing below normal, slaughter supplies are 

 expected to be smaller than those of a 

 year earlier. A large proportion of early 

 lambs in California and Texas will not 

 reach market finish this year because of 

 a lack of green feed. They will be sold 

 as feeders later. The large number of 

 Iambs on feed in Colorado and Nebraska 

 April 1 as compared to Jan. 1, indicates 

 that heavy marketings of fed lambs will 



come later in the season than usual. 



Wool: Prices for the 1939 are ex- 

 pected to be higher than a year ago. 

 Major factors: 1) Smaller carryover than 

 a year ago. 2) Extension of the federal 

 loan program to the 1939 clip, (see 

 page 24). 3) Prospects for a much 

 higher rate of mill consumption through 

 the early part of the year. 4) Recent 

 firmness in foreign markets. 



Wheat: Prices during the next few 

 months will be influenced by political 

 developments in Europe and prospects 

 for the 1939 crop. Domestic prices will 

 continue higher than world prices due to 

 the operation of domestic loan and ex- 

 port programs. The total U. S. crop is 

 expected to be 750 million bushels or 

 180 million smaller than last year. With 

 exports holding their present levels, the 

 carryover will be about 60 million bush- 

 els smaller than a year ago. European 

 crops are expected to be smaller than a 

 year ago. 



Butter: The present price ratio be- 

 tween feeds and butterfat, more favor- 

 able than in 1935, '36 and '37, is not 

 expected to change during the next few 

 months. With the heavy production pe- 

 riod at hand, butter prices can't be ex- 

 pected to rise unless federal buying is 

 resumed. Production of about 30 per 

 cent greater than the 1925-29 average 

 will continue unless pasture conditions 

 should be especially unfavorable. 



Eggs: Poultrymen have purchased 8 

 per cent more chicks this year than last. 

 While production per hen has fallen off 

 some, flocks are enough larger to increase 



f)roduction by 4 per cent. There will be 

 arger supplies of eggs this year pro- 

 vided the feed-egg ratio remains favor- 



( Continued on page 16) 



J-kc <z^c^ 



atii^ct Ltt 



By Talma ge De Frees 



AT SOME time in your lii« you have probably visited an art gallery. On art 

 bill in St. Louis or in the building at Chicago on the lake front may be 

 seen some oi the great paintings of the worlds greatest artists. It is even possible 

 that some of you may have been privileged to visit the Louvre in Paris, or the 

 galleries in Milan, Florence, London or Berlin. If you have visited any of these 

 places I am wondering if you ever noticed the place given to the farmer in the 

 canvases hanging there. Invariably he is pictured as a mere part of the scene 

 portrayed. He plods wearily along behind his plow: He is driving the cattle 

 home at eventide or herding the sheep into the folds against the coming storm. 

 To the artist he has no more significance than the cattle, the horse, the sheep, 

 or the trees and rocks and streams of the landscape. He is a slave of environ- 

 ment, the environment of heredity and custom, of the long usage of carrying the 

 burdens of others and of resignation to his thankless task. 



Happily such paintings do not represent the farmer of tod<iy, at least they 

 do not give any intimation of the fires burning upon the alter of his envisioned 

 heart. Far from succumbing to any system that would bring him and his posterity 

 into a condition of servitude, today he stands upon the front battle lines fighting 

 with the three-fold weapon of heart, intellect and body, to regain his rightful place 

 in a world society. 



L A. A. RECORD 



'f- ...... 



