# 



# 



armaments are obliged to switch over to peacetime operations. A hint as to what might 

 happen is' given in the drastic decline in the prices of some airplane manufacturing 

 stocks during the past tvo weeks. 



• ■ - 



The general consensus of opinion seems to "be that the end of the war with 

 Gennany will have the following effects: (l) War spendings will "be cut about one- 

 third. (2) There will be some army demobilization and no more drafting of men, •, 

 (3) Unemployment will not be especially severe for the nation but may be acute in 

 local areas, {k) Rationing and price control will probably continue for some time. 

 (5) There will be no chance to buy^utomobiles and other consumer goods in large 

 quantities for several months after the war in Europe ends, (6) The war with Japan 

 will continue, probably well into 19^5. 



Shoes . Shoes may be scarce this winter, but the Office of Price Administra- 

 tion promises us 50-days* notice before shoe stan^) No. I8 expires. 



Citrus fruit outlook . Although oranges have been scarce and high priced, 

 the outlook is for an early and mid-season crop (October to May) about I8 percent 

 more than last season. The California crop is expected to be up 50 percent and the 

 Florida crop up 10 percent. The grapefruit crop this season is indicated to be about 

 h percent smaller than the extremely heavy crop of last year, but it would still be 

 the second largest crop on record. The demand is expected to continue extremely 

 strong, particularly in view of the short supply of fresh apples an4 pears and canned 

 fruits. So prices are expected to continue at relatively high levels during most of 

 the season, probably at or near ceiling levels. 



Foreign trade . According to the Census Bureau, both exports and imports 

 for the first nine months of 19^5 exceeded the previous year's figures. Exports, 

 Including lend-lease, but excluding goods sent to the United States armed forces 

 abroad, increased 1\ percent for the nine months* period, and for September were 68 

 percent above September 19^2. Inqports in September were ^4-1 percent above the year 

 previous. For the first nine months, they were up 2? percent. This is an indication 

 of the improvement in the shipping situation and also of our ability to get lend-lestse 

 materials to our allied. 



Correction . : Last week, we quoted a revision in home -slaughter rules. The 

 government has sent through a correction of the last sentence of the first paragraph 

 of the quotation as follows: "In all cases the raising of livestock must take place. 

 on a farm or other place which the livestock producer operates." 



-0- ' ■"^^. 





GL J : sm 

 11/11/1+5 



