-2- 



Seasonal movements of livestock prices under preeent controls . Normal 

 seasonal movements of beef cattle prices for various grades, 19^3 prices, and the 

 pos8i"ble range under the "stabilized" pricing system are illustrated in another 

 section of this review. Several influences are at work to prevent the usual pattern 

 of seasonal price movements of livestock and livestock products from occurring in 

 194if. In general, that portion of the demand based upon consumers' desire and will- 

 ingness to pay would hold prices of all livestock near ceiling levels. During the 

 coming months, however, demand will be influenced more by the ration point values 

 than by consumers* ability to pay. Our principal concern is that such price relation- 

 ships be maintained as will encourage maximum balanced production of farm products. 



Heretofore we have been able to estimate to some degree the probable 

 future trends in production by observing the live stock -feed ratios. These ratios 

 are beginnin{<' to lose their value, because in some cases they represent prices to 

 farmers that include a subsidy to packers and in other cases they represent prices 

 to farmers that exclude a subsidy to the farmers themselves. During October the 

 hog-com ratio in the United States was 7 percent above the long-time October 

 average. The butterfat-feed ratio was down 15 percent; milk-feed ratio, down 5 

 percent; and the egg-feed ratio, down 11 percent. However, since the subsidy has 

 been in effect, the butterfat-feed ratio and the milk-feed ratio do not reflect 

 total income to farmers from the dairy enterprise. 



Agricultural production . For the 9 months January to September 19^5 

 farmers produced 1 percent less milk than during the same period in 19^2. Other 

 production figures were as follows: Eggs, up 15 percent; lamb and mutton, up 8 

 percent; lard, up l8 percent; but beef, down 12 percent. The November crop report 

 indicates an estimated yield of 3,086 million bushels of com, an increase of 1 per- 

 cent from October 1, and only 90 million bushels below the bumper crop of 19^2 and j 

 over TOO million bushels larger than the 1952-^1 average. The acreage harvested 

 this year was 5.^ percent above 19^2, but the acre yield was lower. Other production 

 estimates are as follows : 



Production, U.S. Acreage harvested, U.S. 



Commodity 19^3 19^2 19^3 as percent of 19^2 



All wheat 836 million bushels 98I million bushels 100.8 



Oats 1,1*^9 million bushels 1,359 million bushels 100.1 



Soybeans 206 million bushels 210 million bushels IO6.7 



Potatoes if69 million bushels 57I million bushels 12ii.O 



Sweet potatoes 76 million bushels 65 million bushels 130.5 



Tame hay 86 million tons 92 million tons 100.5 



In general, the northern two-thirds of Illinois fared very well this year. Yields per 

 acre were 80 percent, or more, of normal in practically all of that area. However, 

 the southern one-third, and particularly a narrow strip extending two-thirds of the 

 way from Terre Haute to St. Louis, was worse off than in I9I12. The preliminary 

 estimate for com yields for Illinois was 51.0 bushels per acre, compared to a yield 

 of 59 bushels for Iowa. On the other hand, the yield of soybeans for Illinois was 

 ekstimatod at 21.5 bushels an acre, compared to 20.0 for Iowa. Illinois led all states 

 in soybean production and yields. 



