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-3- 



by trucks has Increased; trucks are wearing out and replacements and repair parte are 

 difficult or ImpossilDl© to obtain. Production of 123,000 coamnercial vehicle unite 

 has "been approved for 19^i4-, but only 80,000 will be for civilian use. That will be 

 less than one-fifth of the- nonnal prewar replacement production of li50,000 vehicles 

 annually, according to the Office of Defense Transportation. In most cases, present 

 trucks probably will be the last obtainable until the end of the war. The trucking 

 industry is also faced with other troubles, including scarcities of tires, gasoline, 

 repair parts, and manpower. 



Locking ahead- -19^^ . The outlook for 19ii-U may be eunimarlzed briefly as 

 follows: (1) Farm Incomes will remain at a very high level. That will be true for 

 income from sales of livestock regardless of crop conditions. (2) Prices of farm 

 products and subsidies to producers in lieu of higher market prices are not likely to 

 change greatly during l^kk unless there is a wide-spread drouth. In that case, prices 

 might be permitted to rise to provide a reasonable income to farmers. (5) There proba- 

 bly will be an acceleration of the movement which is now getting under way in industry 

 to change over from the production of war goods to peace goods. Inasmuch as the war 

 In Europe probably will continue six months If not longer, no great reduction in 

 consumer purchasing power is anticipated. The war In the Pacific is expected to last 

 beyond l^kk» The war effort will shift somewhat but not relax greatly until both ware 

 are won. {k) Industrial activity Is expected to remain at a level approximately 

 equal to that of 19^3. That will mean that consumers will have plenty of money to pay 

 for all the foodstuffs available. (5) Rationing will have to continue, as we cannot 

 produce enough food to supply all that civilians are willing and able to buy in addi-' 

 tion to the increasing quantities needed for our armed forces and lend-lease. (6) The 

 cost of living is likely to increase gradually, but indications are that we shall not 

 have a further serious inflation of prices. (7) Farm real estate values are likely to 

 continue upward, in spite of the fact that farmers in general are following the con- 

 structive and conservative policy of paying their debts and saving the money instead 

 of speculating. Some city people are not so conservative. 



After 19^^ . Because of the large backlog of savings, the need to rehabili- 

 tate Europe, and the deficit Qf residential buildings, certain types of equipment, 

 automobiles, radios, and many types of consumer goods, the outlook for the two years 

 following the war appears bright. During that two years farmers are also protected 

 by the promise of government loans on most farm products, except cattle and sheep, 

 ranging from 75 percent to QO percent of parity. Parity prices may fall, but the loane 

 will prevent incomes from falling greatly in terms of coste of goods farmers buy. 

 Interest and taxes.' 



It is doubtful if we can maintain any considerable volume of agricultural 

 exports, but if industrial workers are kept employisd at remunerative wages, the 

 domestic demand should absorb about all the foodstuffs that we can economically pro- 

 ri.uoe . 



The long-time outlook for agriculture is closely related to the long-time 

 outlook for industry. Agi'iculture, Industry, and labor are mutually dependent. They 

 will all be affected by national policies with respect to public and private finance, 

 foreign trade, monopoly, and whether we earnestly seek an econcmy of abundance or an 

 economy of scarcity. A discussion of these factors is beyond the scope of this 

 review. 



-0- 

 GLJrrw 

 12/30/U3 



