HOW MUCH AEE HOG NUMBERS BEING REDUCED? 



Still unansvered is the question: How much are hog numbers "being reduced? 

 The logical assumption by most observers is that higher feed prices, shortage of 

 labor, the lower support price for hogs next fall, and difficulties encountered in 

 •marketing hogs this winter have caused farmers to plan for fewer spring pigs than the 

 16 percent reduction indicated ir. the ^-^ffic^ial Dpcrmber 1 pig cro /. r<f»pcrt. What do 

 ir.r'rc rrcfnt data show? 



First, the marketing of sows has been large this winter. From the first of 

 December through the first week in February, this year, sow purchases at Chicago 

 averaged from 8 to I6 percent of all packer and shipper purchases con^ared with 5 to 

 10 percent a year previous. However, for all seven principal livestock markets, sow 

 purchases for this period were only 8 to 10 percent of all packer and shipper pur- 

 chases compared with 6 to 7 percent a year ago. Moreover, it would only be good busi- 

 ness for hog producers to market heavy sows and keep gilts for spring farrowings. 

 The heavy marketing of sows, then, is a strong indicat icn thc.t ho^ nvjv>ers rirr ^'^'■t^-C 

 reduced, but it is not conclusive proof that they are being reduced excessively. 



Second, total hog slaughter has been heavy this winter, but has it been ex- 

 cessive when compared with the size of the 19^5 spring pig crop of 7^ million head? 

 From October through February federally inspected hog slaughter totaled 3^.7 million 

 head, which is kf percent of the 19^3 spring crop. In other years inspected hog 

 slaughter for these five months has run from 57 to 50 percent of the previous year's 

 spring pig crop. 



Another set of data on the prospective size of the 19^^ spring pig crop was 

 obtained by members of the Agricultural Extension Service from over 500 farmers who 

 attended the recent outlook meetings. Surprisingly, the number of sows being kept on 

 these 500 Illinois farms to farrow spring pigs is only 13 percent smaller than the • 

 record 19^3 plg crop. This reduction is exactly the amount the agricultural produc- 

 tion goals committee estimated would be needed to bring hog numbers in line with feed 

 supplies. Reductions ranged from 52 percent in the southern counties to only 6 per- 

 cent in the grain area. 



On the basis of these three indicators, it does not appear that hog liquida- 

 tion has gone much, if any, further than would be desirable in order to bring hog num- 

 bers in line with the prospective available feed supply, 



L. F, Stice 



