) 



WHAT'S AHEAD IN HOG PRICES? 

 By L. F. Stlce, Extension Marketing Specialist 



The recent unexpected sliimp in hog prices has undouhtedly caused many producers 

 to wonder what's ahead in hog prices this winter. Some weakness in prices and closer 

 grading were to he expected as hog receipts increased with the marketing of the spring 

 pig crop, hut the decline was more sudden and severe than can he explained by changes in 

 demand and supply conditions. 



Receipts of salahle hogs at 12 puhlic markets during Septemher were officially 

 estimated at 1,085,000 compared with 1,557,000 in Septemher 1945. October receipts in- 

 creased to 1,214-5,000, but this was 251,000 head below those for October 19^^-5 and 28,000 

 below receipts for October 19l<-2 (see chart below). Moreover, hog receipts at these mar- 

 kets the week ending November k, 19Ul<-, were J>2'J,'jk6 compared with 500,7214- for the same 

 week in I9I4-5. 



The civilian demand for pork and. pork products is not being supplied and may be 

 expected to continue strong during the coming months. Although shortage of labor in pack- 

 ing plemts may have been a contributing factor, the most likely explanation is that pack- 

 ers took advantage of the increased market receipts to reduce their costs of purchases 

 from the level they were paying during the months of short receipts. Undoubtedly receipts 

 will continue to increase until a peak is reached in December or January, but because of 

 the 2k percent reduction in the spring pig crop, they will not be so large as a year ago. 

 Hog prices will continue to show some weakness during this period of seasonally heavy mar- 

 keting, but the decline should not be so severe as a yeai' ago. 



MONl'ELY RECEIPTS OF SALABLE HOGS AT 12 PUBLIC 

 MARKETS, OCTOBER 19lf2 TO OCTOBER 19l^lf 



• 



Head 

 (000) 



2,50c- 



2,00c 



1,50c 



1,00c - 



^ead 

 (000) 



Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 



