1. 1 mit-t i^"JM«;"w' . 



# 



# 



-2- 



The vheat situation . Wheat stocks on January 1 totaled about 835 million 

 bushels compared with 818 million bushels the year earlier. On the basis of prospec- 

 tive domestic disappearances the first half of 19*^5 and the llklihood that exports 

 will increase very materially, a carry-over July 1, 19^5* of between 550 and 575 mil- 

 lion bushels is indicated. Exports of wheat to Europe are expected to be greatly 

 accelerated to meet a critical food situation, but the exportable surplus of Canada, 

 Argentina and the United States on January 1 was estimated at about 80O million bush- 

 els. This should be adequate to t€Jce care of any possible foreign needs. 



Included in the record wheat export movement planned by the government will 

 be at least 3 million pounds of wheat flour during the next three months. The trans- 

 portation tie-up is still limiting movement of all grains to market and may interfere 

 somewhat with the export program. However, the new demand added to a healthy domestic 

 demand has kept hsLrd winter wheat prices at ceiling levels. The demand has been 

 especially strong for high protein wheat. 



The livestock situation. The total meat production for 19^5 vill be about 

 10 percent smaller than the record production in 19W4-, according to government esti- 

 mates. Most of this reduction will be in the first nine months of the year. The 

 supply available to civilians is expected to average 128 to 155 pounds per capita. 

 There was a marked decrease in the number of livestock on farms and ranches during 

 191+4. A further decrease in the numbers of cattle other than milk cows, sheep, horses 

 and mules is in prospect for I9U5. No material change in the number of hogs, chickens 

 or milk cows is expected. The hog-corn price ratio has recently been more favorable 

 than at any time since the spring of 19^4-5 and well above average. This, combined with 

 the expectation of a continuation of this favorable ratio during the summer, may lead 

 to heavier feeding and some increase in fall farrowings. 



A. J. Surratt, agricultural statistician, reports that cash income of Illi- 

 nois farmers from wool shorn in 19^4 was $2,l60,000 compared with $2,781,000 in 19^5. 

 The 22 percent decline was due to the sharply reduced 19^1- wool crop. The clip aver- 

 aged the same weight per head, but the number of sheep shorn was only 6^17; 000 compared 

 to 851+, 000 the previous yeeir. The local market price averaged k^ cents a pound in 

 1944* up one cent from 19'*5. The production for the United States was down 7 percent. 



Cold storage movement . A heavy percentage movement out of cold storage 

 during February was reported for apples, pears, fish, lard and pork fat. The move- 

 ment of lard and pork fat was contrary to usual seasonal behavior. Stocks of other 

 items which decreased. appreciably were butter, frozen vegetables, frozen eggs, poultry 

 and pork. Sausage stocks increased 22 percent and beef stocks 15 percent during 

 February . 



Fats and oils . The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that 

 the total supply of fats and oils in the United States will be substantially reduced 

 in 19^5. Production from domestic materials will be reduced over one billion pounds, 

 principally because of lowered lard production. Factory and warehouse stocks of fats 

 and oils were about the same January 1, 191+5* as a year eeurlier. No material Increase 

 in imports over last year is anticipated. Supplies of fats and oils will be short 

 during the next six months, at least for virtually all classes of domestic use . A 

 slight increase in the production of domestic edible oils--cottonseed, soybean, com. 



