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quotas of fluid milk, light cream (under 19 percent butterfat), buttermilk and choco- 

 late dairy drinks. This should make more of these products available to civilians in 

 sctie areas where these restrictions were effective. Supplies of whipping cream are 

 not made available by this suspension. Secretary Anderson explained that this step 

 was made possible by the high level of milk production during recent months and the 

 recent favorable trends in the supplies of all manufactured dairy products. Including 

 cheese, butter and evaporated milk. 



Will civilians spend freely ? There is considerable difference of opinion 

 with regard to the attitude civilians will take during the next few months. Their at- 

 titudes will largely determine whether we have a recession of several months' duration 

 and the extent of the recovery from such a recession. One group thinks that in spite 

 of lower incomes based on a shorter work week civilians will have more leisure, will 

 save less and will spend a leurger fraction of their income. This group would expect 

 a brisk trade based upon free spending. Important segments of the federal government 

 would seem to favor policies that would lead to free spending acccmpcuiied by vh&t 

 might be termed controlled inflation. The other group expects people to be cautious 

 and unwilling to spend their accumulated savings. What will happen probably will be 

 determined by the extent and promptness with which civilian industry absorbs the mil- 

 lions of men being discharged from war industries and the armed services. 



' The Ccnmittee for Economic Development has issued a report which gives busi- 



nessmen's estimates of postwar markets for manufactured goods. These estimates are 

 optimistic. The committee' points out that the postwar years can roughly be divided 

 into three periods: First, a short period of reconversion which may last throu^ 19^. 

 During the second period, probably beginning in I9U6 or early 19^7* producers will be 

 filling the demands deferred by the war. This period will last for a year or two, 

 after which the third period will consist of a shift to a self-sustaining or a nor- 

 mal basis. 



Cattle on feed. August 1 . The number of cattle on feed for market in the 

 eleven com belt states on August 1 was 16 percent larger than the relatively small 

 number on feed August 1, 19kk, However, It was probably smaller than the August 1 

 number in any other year since 1937. Shipments of stocker and feeder cattle into the 

 com belt during the first seven months of I9U5 were materially larger than in the 

 corresponding period of 19*^^^, 



The wheat situation . Heavy feeding during the first half of the year re- 

 duced the carry-over of old wheat on July 1 to about 28l million bushels. The new 

 crop is now estimated at 1,129 million bushels. Imports are likely to be small, per- 

 haps not more than 15 million bushels. It was estimated that disappearance of wheat 

 for civilian and military food would be 56O million bushels and for seed, 8I million 

 bushels. Exports of wheat are expected to continue heavy during 19^5-^. We are in 

 a position to export large quantities, and wheat is one of the most urgently needed 

 foods in the liberated areas. 



The Canadian carry-over of wheat on July 51 stood at 258 million bushels 

 sompared with 357 million bushels on July ^1, I9UU. Canadicui exports were exception- 

 ally large during the crop year; stocks, on the other hand, were reduced to the lowest 

 level since 1939. Reductions also occurred in the Canadieua carry-over of oats, barley, 

 rye, and flaxseed. 



Wool production . The 19^5 Illinois wool crop is estimated at U,7 million 

 pounds, the smallest since 1929, according to the state and federal departments of 



