• WHEAT OUTLOOK FOR 191^6 

 By L. F. Stlce, Extenelon Marketing Specialist 



Although the 19^5 U. S. wheat crop Is the largest on record, supplies are not 

 excessive in relation to anticipated needs during the next ten months. In fact in- 

 creased demands for export and continued heavy consumption of wheat in this country may 

 result in a carry-over of all wheat on July 1, 19^6, which will not he much larger than 

 the 1952-191^1 average (see table). 



The September 1 estimate of the 19^5 wheat crop was 1,152 million bushels 

 compared with 1,079 million bushels in 19^4 and the 1932-19^1 average of 738 million 

 bushels. Increased use of wheat for livestock feed and industrial alcohol in recent 

 years has reduced the stocks of old wheat on July 1 to less than half of that in 19^2 

 and 19^3, and the- total supply of wheat in the United States for the 19U5-U6 season 

 is estimated to be 1,U.33 million bushels^ The supply was 1,596 million bushels a year 

 ago, l,k63 million bushels in 19l^3, and 1,606 million bushels in 19^2. 



It is expected that a fairly high level of wheat production will be needed 

 in 1946. Prices in 19^6 will be supported through the loan program at not below 90 

 percent of parity, which at the present time is $1.38 a bushel, U. S. average farm 

 price. In Illinois the 19lf5 loan rate for No. 1 wheat is about 10 cents a bushel 

 higher. In the later postwar years either production controls to bring production in " 

 line with domestic needs or subsidized exports will be necessary. The present price 

 of wheat in the United- States is substantially above that of other exporting countries, 



I 



SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OF WHEAT, UNITED STATES 

 1952- 19iH average and 19^2-191+5 (year beginning July l) 



1932-191+1 av. 1914-2 



Stocks, July 1 

 Production 

 Dcanestlc supply 



Domestic disappearance 



Available for export and carry-over 



235 

 738 



975 

 678 

 295 



(million bushels) 



632 622 317 



97U 8UI 1.079 



1,606 1,1+65 1,596 



951 

 6j>5 



1,217 

 21+6 



1,017 

 579 



281 

 l,i^55 

 976* 

 1+67* 



* Indication 



