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Surplus grain forecast for years ahead . A speaker at the meeting of the 

 Grain and Feed Dealers' National Association told the group last week that American 

 ffiuiTners are going to produce so much grain In peacetime that converting It to alcohol 

 will be the only means of avoiding disastrous surpluses. He eald that better farming 

 methods, Including the replacement of 12 million horses and mules by two million 

 tractors, means that In 1950 the United States can produce as much com as In 19^^ on 

 38 million fewer acres. He estimates that the known uses for alcohol In plastics and 

 synthetic rubber could easily account for more than 200 million bushels of our surplus 

 grain. He believes that It will be Impossible to export grain surpluses because other 

 countries will build up barriers against Incoming grain In order to protect their own 

 farming Industry. 



October 1 crop report . Although prospects for scxne crops were lower In 

 September as a result of wet weather, some drouth, extremes In temperatures and early 

 frosts, national crop prospects declined only slightly. Based on the October 1 govern- 

 ment estimate, the aggregate total crop production will probably equal that of the ex- 

 ceptionally favorable years of 19^2 and 19^^ and will exceed the production In the big 

 year 19^5 '^y about 6 percent. Food grain production Is the largest €uid feed grain 

 production the second largest on record. The com forecast at 5>078 million bushels 

 was about the same as on September 1. Prospects declined slightly for soybeans. 

 September was favorable for pastures and for milk and egg production. Record crops 

 are expected for wheat, oats, rice, soybeans, peemuts, tobacco, peaches, pears, early 

 and mldseason oranges, grapefruit, almonds, hops and truck crops for market. Near- 

 record crops are In prospect for hay, potatoes, flaxseed, sugar cane, grapes, com 

 and sorghum grain. Total farm production of livestock and livestock products in 19^*5 

 seems to be about the same as the eiggregate volume produced last year, but about 5 per- 

 cent below the all-time high in 19^3 • Production is expected to be the second or 

 third largest volume on record. Milk production promises to establish a new record. 

 The Illinois situation agrees closely with the national report. The yield of tame hay 

 in Illinois is expected to be a 6o-year record high, fimd oats appear to have equaled 

 the all-time high established in 19^0. 



Livestock- feed ratios and -production comparisons . For the month of August 

 19'+5> the hog-corn ratio for the U. S. was 8 percent above the long-time August average. 

 The but terfat- feed ratio was up 17 percent, the milk-feed ratio up 12 percent emd the 

 egg-feed ratio up l6 percent. For the seven months Jemuary to July, inclusive, of this 

 year, milk production exceeded last year's production for the same months by h percent. 

 Egg production was down 5 percent, beef production up 9 percent, lamb ajid mutton pro- 

 duction up 11 percent, pork and lard production down U5 percent and the production of 

 all meats down 25 percent. 



Cattle feeding situation . According to a government release dated October 12, 

 developments in the cattle feeding situation to early October indicated that- the volume 

 of cattle fed during the coming winter feeding season may be little different from that 

 of the winter season of 19^-^5- Considerable variation may take place among regions 

 compared to last year. Present indications point to em increase in the eastern corn 

 belt, a decrease in the Great Plains areas from Kansas to Texas and little change in 

 the far-western states. Movement of grass cattle from the Northern Plains and Rocky 

 Mountain States during the three months July to September was much smaller this year 



^^rbhan last. A heavy movement from that area during the present queirter is probable. 



^^iTiere may be a large supply of feeder cattle available to meet the increased demand 

 resulting from relatively large supplies of soft com. 



