-2- 



The new schedule of hog price support at Chicago is as follows: Week end- 

 ing October 5, 19^, $12.75; October 12, $12.50; October 19, $12.25; October 26, $12; 

 November 2, $11.75; November 9, $11.50; November l6, $11.25; November 23, $11; 

 November 50, $10.75; December 1, Ik, and; 28, $10.75; January k, 19^7, $10.75; January 



11, $11; January l8 and 28, $11.25; February 1, $11.50; February 8 and 15, $11.75; 

 February 22, $12; March 1, $12; March 8, 15, ^, apd 29, $12.25; April 5, $12.25; April 



12, 19, and 26, $12; May 5, 10, 17, 2k, 51, ^vaae 7, June ll^ and June 21, $11.75; June 

 28, $12; July 5, $12.25; July 12, $12.50i July 19, $12.75; July 26, $15; August 2, 9, 

 16, 25, and 50, $15; September 6, I5, 20, and 27, $15.25. 



19k6 soybecm goals . If the current preliminary goals discussions of United 

 States Department of Agriculture officials are any criterion, next year's soybean 

 acreage goal will fall between nine and 10 million acres, and the price support will 

 come between $1.70 and $1.75 a bushel. This is the way the 19^ soybean program is 

 now shaping up: 



Three main aurguments are put forward on the side of somewhat lower soybean 

 acreage and a cut in price support for next year: 



(1) The expectation of a considerable volume of South Pacific oils coming 

 into the U. S. by the time next year's soybean crop is crushed. (2) Estimates that 

 1946 cottonseed production will considerably exceed this year's output- -1.1 billion 

 pounds of cottonseed oil. (5) Desire of the administration to shave price support 

 expenditures as closely as possible. 



There is about 51 cents a bushel subsidy, on the average, in the present 

 $2.0^4^ price support on soybeans. The fats euad oils branch of the new Production and 

 Marketing Administration would like to lower the price support enough to remove this 

 subsidy. If finally approved, this would bring next year's soybean price down to 

 around $1.75 a bushel. 



Three principal surguments are advanced on the other side in support of a 

 higher price level for soybeans than is now indicated: (l) Historically, it takes a 

 price ratio of approximately 2 to 1 in favor of soybeans over com to attract an acre- 

 age in the neighborhood of 10 million acres. (2) Should the parity price level, as 

 some economists predict* go up several points next year due to an increase in the cost 

 of things farmers have to buy, it would throw the price ratio between com and soybeans 

 farther out of line. Soybean pcurity on September 15 was $1.67 a bushel, making the 

 postwar mandatory support, as of that date, $1.50 a bushel. 



The dairy situation . Demand and support factors for dairy products, except 

 butter, in 19*^6 are expected to be fairly well in balance at prices for whole milk 

 somewhat lower than in 19^5. If supplies are freely available, it is expected that 

 civilians will piirchase approximately II8 billion pounds of dairy products on a milk 

 equivalent basis. The supply of milk fat available for butter, however, is expected 

 to be short of demand. Milit€ury purchases of dairy products in 19*^6 will be one-half 

 to two-thirds less than in the past two ye£urs. This will not be reflected in a substan- 

 tial net reduction in demand, since demobilization of military personnel will add to 

 civilian requirements. Export demand in 19^6 will be wefiiker than in I9U5, even if large- 

 credits are granted to foreign countries. A considerable amount of lend-lease shipments 

 during the war was used by the military forces of our allies. Exports of dairy products 

 in 19^7 probably will be negligible compared with total supplies of dairy products. 



